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The EU’s ageing problems can’t be stopped by either fertility or migration. But labour participation and education trends offer clear reasons for optimism, writes Nicholas Gailey.
In prosperous countries – including every single EU member state – long life spans and low birth rates are driving the average age upward. This byproduct of medical success and personal choice has set the stage for labour force decline, risking Europe’s ability to support itself.
Many prominent voices clash over ways to infuse youth back into Europe and tackle a rise in dependency on the social systems. But the heated debates regularly misjudge the relationships that migration and fertility can have with EU ageing in the first place.
A recent demographic study from the European Commission reveals the reality of unstoppable ageing, while also showing that Europe has a way out of its dilemma.
The path is through broader and more efficient integration into the labour force of those already here, especially women and people who have often been considered too old.
To illustrate the point – if migration inflows doubled to four million each year, the EU would quickly grow by more than 150 million people by 2060, while the proportion aged 65+ still balloons.
The current near-balance between workers and dependents would similarly deteriorate over the decades regardless.
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