June 2021

Australia. IGR shows super will lift living standards and ease burden on aged pension

The Intergenerational Report has once again confirmed Australia’s compulsory super system has lifted living standards for millions while easing the burden on the aged pension. Despite an ageing population, lifting the super rate to 12% and the maturing superannuation system will see fewer future Australians rely on the taxpayer-funded aged pension to support themselves in retirement. The pension cost is expected to drop from 2.8% of GDP today to 2.1% in 2060. The proportional decrease in pension costs occurs even as...

Pension Funds and Financial Repression

By Richard Mark Davis, Fiona Stewart, Peter Knaack Pension funds in some economies are used as a captive audience to channel capital at below market rates to government. This policy is only one tool in the financial repression toolkit, but it is receiving increased attention as governments around the world struggle to increase fiscal space and reduce their sovereign debt burden as they rebuild their economies after the pandemic. First, this paper provides an analysis of financial repression using pension funds...

World Bank : The costs and benefits of making pension funds a target for financial repression

Financial repression is not new topic, but the striking amount of new debt taken on by governments to support their economies in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis has made the issue ever more relevant. Financial repression occurs when governments channel funds to themselves that in a deregulated market environment would go elsewhere. It usually aims to provide cheaper loans to companies and governments, reducing their burden of repayments by lowering returns to savers. Policies involved can include capital...

May 2021

US. Biden’s $86 Billion Pension Rescue Set to Boost Corporate Bonds

U.S. President Joe Biden’s pension bailout might do more than just support troubled retirement plans. It could also spur tens of billions of dollars in demand for corporate bonds with the lowest investment-grade ratings, according to Citigroup Inc. Struggling multi-employer pensions, which are often tied to unions, will be able to apply for special financial assistance, thanks to the $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief bill signed into law in March. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., which insurers the plans, will make a single...

China Population and Development Studies

By CPDRC, CPA This journal provides an international platform for discussions on topics related to various population phenomena and development issues, complemented by a strong representation of the research trend and achievement in China and other Asian countries. The journal, hosted by China Population and Development Research Center, draws on the energetic and resourceful Chinese research community as well as in close contact with the Asian research community in the area, features the Asian perspective on the field of population...

Have scale effects on cost margins of pension fund investment portfolios disappeared?

By Jacob Antoon Bikker, Jeroen Meringa Investment costs of pension funds are crucial for their returns. Consolidation in the pension fund market proceeds continuously, often with cost savings as the main argument. Unused economies of scale in the pension fund investment costs, however, have declined over the years to values close to zero, except for the very small pension funds. This paper investigates investment economies of scale in the Netherlands and pays special attention to the non-linear relationship between investment...

Why China and east Asia’s ageing population threatens global Covid recovery

For many years China watchers have been concerned that its ageing population will slow economic growth, causing social as well as political problems. So today’s census data may be an alarm bell for leaders in Beijing. But it is not just China that is witnessing this trajectory. Most countries in east Asia, even without fertility control policies such as China’s one-child or two-child policies, share the same predicament: how to continue economic growth while encouraging people to have more children? This...

April 2021

Latin America. What Comes After the Commodity Super Cycle and the Pandemic? Policies to Tackle Poverty and Inequality in Latin America

Latin America entered the pandemic as one of the most unequal regions in the world. And like much of the rest of the world, it will come out of the pandemic poorer and more unequal. Early estimates suggest that 19 million more people in the region have fallen into poverty and inequality increased by 5 percent compared to pre-crisis levels. Large scale public support in many countries prevented an even worse outcome, but this pushed public debt levels from...

Declining Natural Interest Rate in the US: The Pension System Matters

By Jacopo Bonchi, Giacomo Caracciolo The natural interest rate is the level of the real interest rate compatible with potential output and stable prices. We develop a life-cycle model and calibrate it to the US economy to quantify the role of the public pension scheme for the past and future evolution of the natural interest rate. Between 1970 and 2015, the pension reforms have overall mitigated the secular decline in the natural interest rate, raising it by around one percentage...

Involuntary unemployment in overlapping generations model due to instability of the economy and fiscal policy

By Yasuhito Tanaka The existence of involuntary unemployment advocated by J. M. Keynes is a very important problem of the modern economic theory. Using a three-generations overlapping generations model, we show that the existence of involuntary unemployment is due to the instability of the economy. Instability of the economy is the instability of the difference equation about the equilibrium price around the full-employment equilibrium, which means that a fall in the nominal wage rate caused by the presence of involuntary...