January 2023

Population Aging and Migration

By Panu Poutvaara International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. Read book here  

Immigrant Swan Song

By Giovanni Peri The immigration debate often focuses on culture, identity, and the economy. In countries such as the Australia, Canada, and the United States where many immigrants—especially those who have moved for economic reasons—assimilate into the labor force quickly, the case for more immigration is built on its potential economic benefits. Research shows that immigration does not reduce the capital intensity of the economy, but rather it allows firms to expand and investments to adjust, and it also promotes...

October 2022

The politics and economics of pension privatization in latin america

By Raúl Madrir This research note seeks to explain 'lvhya large nUl11ber of Latin Atnerican countries have privatized their pension systel11s in recent years. It argues that the privatization schelnes are a response to the severe capital shortages that have plagued their countries intennittently in recent years rather than to the financial problelns facing son1e of the pension systelns. The likelihood of pension privatization, 1 argue, is determined in large part by the vulnerability of countries to capital shortages as...

Experts debate length severity recession

The likelihood of an economic recession in the U.S. is a near certainty as inflation and interest rates climb, according to industry experts who spoke to Pensions & Investments. But there's a divergence of views when it comes to the potential length and severity of the downturn. In the worst-case scenario — a lengthy recession — institutional investors will have few places to seek respite from the gloom. Still, managers agreed the best place for institutional investors to park their money...

Reforma Previsional en Chile: una demanda pendiente

Las AFP, o Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones, cumplieron 42 años de funcionamiento. Antes existía en nuestro país un sistema de pensiones de reparto (sistema que se financia con los aportes que realizan los trabajadores activos y el Estado, por lo tanto el dinero aportado va a un fondo común con el cual se pagan las prestaciones; este sistema se concibe bajo los principios de solidaridad intergeneracional e intrageneracional), que agrupaba a un conjunto de cajas previsionales. Existía un consenso,...

Global financial instability risk hits new heights – IMF

A series of "cascading shocks" have raised the risk of global financial instability to new levels, officials with the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. "It's difficult to think of a time where uncertainty was so high," Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department, said at a press briefing on the IMF's October 2022 Global Financial Stability Report. "The kind of risk we are flagging is the highest, outside of acute crisis," Antonio Garcia Pascual, deputy division chief...

September 2022

BoE’s £65bn move driven by pension fund panic

The Bank of England stepped in to calm markets after some types of pension funds were at risk of collapse. It pledged to buy £65bn of government bonds after Friday's mini-budget sparked turmoil on financial markets and the pound plunged. Investors had demanded a much higher return for investing in government bonds, causing some to halve in value. Pension funds, which invest in bonds, were forced to start selling, sparking fears of a fresh market downturn. The Bank said its decision to buy...

UK pensions hit with £100m margin calls as gilts and sterling slide

At least three LDI managers request emergency capital as others consider unwinds to avoid default. UK pension funds have been hit with variation margin calls of as much as £100 million ($107 million) each, after sharp falls in gilts and sterling pushed mark-to-market valuations on derivatives and leveraged repo positions heavily against them. Simeon Willis, chief investment officer of consultancy XPS Pensions Group, says he knows of three different fund managers running pooled pension portfolios that have requested emergency capital...

US. Fed hikes interest rates 75 basis points; now targets year-end funds rate of 4.4%

The Federal Reserve on Friday agreed to a request from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to return unused funds from emergency lending programs. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, boosting the target range for the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%, in a continuing bid to tamp down inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee, which concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday, had previously increased rates by 75...

Pensions, with inflation soaring, 2022 will be the worst year to retire

What impact will inflation have on pensions? An answer comes from the tenth edition of Natixis IM’s Global Retirement (GRI) Index 2022. Analysis suggests that 2022 may be the hardest year to retire in recent history. This is due to a market environment that affects retirement savings. In practice, the high inflation rate will erode part of the capital set aside but the volatility on the markets as well as the low interest rates also weigh. These are the...