May 2017

The Politics of Social Protection in Ghana: Policy Reform in a Competitive African Democracy (2000-2014)

By Eduard Grebe (Stellenbosch University) The Kufuor (New Patriotic Party) administration of 2000-2008 implemented substantial reforms of the contributory social insurance system (including the introduction of a national health insurance scheme and a new 'three tier' pensions system), and introduced a range of social assistance schemes targeted at the 'extreme poor'. This paper analyses the factors that drove policy reform and the broad cross-party consensus that emerged despite highly competitive elections. Electoral dynamics played a significant role, and this is...

April 2017

How Can China Provide Income Security for its Rapidly Aging Population?

By Barry James, Estelle Kane & Che Friedman The authors discuss key choices policy makers face about China's pension system in the face of a rapidly aging population. They describe the problems the current pay-as-you-go system faces in the near and long term and simulate policy options for solving those problems. They find that simple design changes are necessary but not sufficient conditions for making the pension system sustainable. Partial funding is necessary to avoid large increases in future contribution...

Pension Reform: Is There a Tradeoff between Efficiency and Equity?

By Estelle James In the past decade, Latin America has taken the lead in structural pension reform which replaces a publicly managed pay-as-you-go defined-benefit system with a system of privately managed, fully funded defined-contribution accounts supplemented by a social safety net This arrangement is designed to improve efficiency and growth, and preliminary evidence suggest that it has been successful in doing so. But traditional social security systems have been justified on the grounds that they are equitable and redistribute to...

March 2017

Pensions and Sovereign Default

By Sean Myers (Stanford University) This paper studies the effect of public pension obligations on a government's decision to default. In the model, the government can renege on its pension promises but suffers a cost from losing the trust of households about future pensions. Large pension promises act as a commitment device for debt because they require the government to have regular access to credit markets. The government's decision to default is driven by its total obligations, not just its...

Is There a Positive Incentive Effect from Privatizing Social Security: Evidence from Latin America

By Truman G. Packard (World Bank) There is increasing concern among policymakers that social security reforms that involve a transition to individual retirement savings accounts may exclude certain groups of workers from coverage against the risk of poverty in old age. While most public pay-as-you-go systems pool the risk of interrupted careers and periods of low earnings over the covered population, the reformed systems shift the burden of these risks to the individual. Adequate coverage under a system of individual...

February 2017

The Political Economy of Underfunded Municipal Pension Plans

By Jeffrey Brinkman, Daniele Coen-Pirani & Holger Sieg This paper analyzes the determinants of underfunding of local government's pension funds using a politico-economic overlapping generations model. We show that a binding downpayment constraint in the housing market dampens capitalization of future taxes into current land prices. Thus, a local government's pension funding policy matters for land prices and the utility of young households. Underfunding arises in equilibrium if the pension funding policy is set by the old generation. Young households...

Advancing the Ugandan Economy: A Personal Account

By Ezra Sabiti Suruma In 1973, when I returned from a seven-year tour of study in the United States to take up a teaching job at Makerere University (Kampala, Uganda), General Idi Amin was the president of Uganda and political parties were banned. There was no opportunity for anyone, including a young academic returning from study abroad, to participate in shaping the country’s political economy. The economy was starting to fail, and fear was spreading among the population because of...

The Issue of Rural Banking and Microfinance Institutions (Chapter)

By Ezra Sabiti Suruma The first quarter century of Uganda’s independence from British colonial rule (1962–85) was characterized by internal conflicts, dictatorship, and economic disintegration. However, the subsequent years (1986–2012) were marked by relative political and economic stability as well as sustained economic growth. During this period of transition, Ezra Suruma held many high positions in the arena of Ugandan politics and economics and served with distinction as Uganda’s minister of finance and economic development from 2005 to 2009.Advancing the...

Retirement delay unified or differentiated: based on the interaction between pension deficit and labor market

By Zou Tieding & Ye Hang The pension deficit has been rapidly enlarging for more than a decade. If the retirement age is set at a low level, it might trigger a pensions crisis. Since the average life span of the Chinese has extended from 71 to 76 years old in last ten years, the feasibility of rising the retirement age has also been promoted. Methods: This paper aims to construct a mathematical model for choosing a proper policy about...