August 2017

The State of Public Pension Funding: Are Government Employee Plans Back on Track?

By Andrew G. Biggs (American Enterprise Institute) The public-sector pension industry is claiming a comeback from losses suffered during the Great Recession. But this recovery is greatly exaggerated: even years past the end of the recession, most pension sponsors are unable to their full annual contributions, and pensions are taking as much investment risk as ever. The first step to effective pension reforms is an honest, accurate view of the costs and risks that public plans impose on government budgets...

Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think?

By Charles Adam Bee & Joshua W Mitchell (US Census Bureau) The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) is the source of the nation’s official household income and poverty statistics. In 2012, the CPS ASEC showed that median household income was $33,800 for householders aged 65 and over and the poverty rate was 9.1 percent for persons aged 65 and over. When we instead use an extensive array of administrative income records linked to the same...

The Macroeconomic Impact of Fertility Changes in an Aging Population

By Neha Bairoliya, Ray Miller (Harvard University) & Akshar Saxena (Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health) We assess the impact of continued low fertility in China, versus a rebound in fertility due to the relaxation of the one child policy, on demographic and macroeconomic outcomes in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We use a rich model of human capital investment, public health insurance, pensions, private savings, and intra-family transfers to support the consumption of young and elderly...

El ahorro en México desde 1960

Durante las últimas décadas el tema del ahorro ha figurado como un punto central en las discusiones académicas y entre los responsables de formular las políticas económicas en diversos países y organismos internacionales. Experiencias internacionales recientes en algunos países contribuyeron a reavivar el debate sobre la importancia que tendría el ahorro para garantizar un crecimiento sostenido. Leer más: AQUÍ

Un Panorama de las Pensiones en America Latina y el Caribe

"Panorama de las Pensiones en América Latina y el Caribe" presenta por primera vez un amplio rango de indicadores para la comparación de los diseños de los sistemas pensionales en 26 países de América Latina y el Caribe. Los indicadores son comparables con los de los países de la OCDE y miembros seleccionados del G-20, publicados por la OCDE. Leer Más: AQUÍ

July 2017

The Evolution of Social Security Research

By Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (University of Malaya) & Evangelos Koutronas (Social Security Research Centre) This article examines the evolution of social security research from a theoretical and empirical perspective. This is done through an extensive review and analysis of publications from the Journal of International Social Security Review published by Wiley within a 50-year period (1967-2017). It was observed that at a different period in time, the social security research focused on different national and international issues that invoked...

June 2017

Public Pension Reform and the Takings Clause

By Michael B. Kent Jr. (Campbell University) Of the many current issues facing state and local governments, perhaps one of the most pressing is public pension reform. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are nearly 4,000 public pension systems in the United States, the vast majority (3,742) of which are administered by local governments. As of 2014, these systems had more than 19,000,000 members and more than 9,000,000 beneficiaries receiving periodic payments. But many of these systems are in...

Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-as-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries

By Masahiro Nozaki (International Monetary Fund) How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson's (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year. The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be...

May 2017

Pension Reform Options in Chile: Some Tradeoffs

By Marika Santoro (International Monetary Fund) In this paper, we study the macroeconomic impact of pension reform options in Chile, using a dynamic general equilibrium model. The main reform proposal considers raising contributions (employer side) and vehicle additional proceeds to individual accounts and to increase the support of solidarity pensions. We model increased contributions as a labor tax. We find the impact of this reform on GDP to be negative in the near to the medium run, with GDP declining...