September 2023

US. Fed holds interest rates steady

Federal Reserve officials on Sept. 20 held interest rates steady and signaled one more rate increase this year as the central bank continues its quest to tamp down inflation without overcooling the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5% following its two-day meeting. The committee in recent months has alternated between hikes and pauses — it approved a quarter-point increase at its last meeting in July but did...

Health, Pensions, and Electricity Sectors Are Key to Fiscal Consolidation in Guinea-Bissau

Strengthening the pension system, improving health sector outcomes, and enhancing the performance of the electricity sector are key to consolidating fiscal space in Guinea-Bissau and accelerating development. These are some of highlights of the Public Expenditure Review (PER), a new report launched by the World Bank. With a small population of around 2 million and economic activity centered on the production and sale of unprocessed cashew nuts, Guinea-Bissau is beset by political instability and high rates of extreme poverty and vulnerability....

Uganda turns to local pension funds for funding after being blocked by World Bank

Uganda is turning to local pension funds as a survival measure following external freezing of funding from the World Bank. The EastAfrican has learnt that the government is in talks with the World Bank for the lender to rescind its decision to withhold budget support for Kampala worth Ush6.7 trillion ($1.787 billion). The bank suspended funding last month in the wake of Kampala’s decision to pass a new anti-homosexual law deemed by the West as a violation of rights of...

August 2023

Ghana Restructures $4 Billion in Latest Domestic Debt Exchange

Ghana agreed to terms to swap about $4 billion of domestic debt, taking another step toward meeting its obligations under an International Monetary Fund bailout. The results imply Ghana achieved about 95% target under the latest three debt exchange deals. The country’s Eurobond maturing in 2032 declined by 0.2 cents on Wednesday to 43.7 cents on the dollar. Notes maturing in 2051 dropped by a similar amount to 42 cents on the dollar. Pension funds agreed to exchange 29.6 billion cedis ($2.6...

June 2023

A Complaint Template for Legal Challenges to the Validity of the Statutory ‘Debt Ceiling’

By Robert C. Hockett The Statutory ‘Debt Ceiling’ appearing at 31 USC 3101(b), rooted in the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 aimed at expanding Treasury financing options during the First World War, is not valid in any application that would occasion default on U.S. sovereign debt, other contractual obligations, or Social Security or Veterans’ pension obligations. There are at least seven mutually reinforcing legal grounds for so saying. These include preemption of such application of the Ceiling by the...

US. Senate passes debt ceiling agreement; bill heads to Biden

With only days before a projected U.S. default, the Senate in a 63-36 vote on Thursday passed a bill to suspend the debt ceiling, sending the measure to President Joe Biden for signature. The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 will suspend the debt ceiling until January 2025 and cap federal spending for at least two years. The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday estimated the bill will cut the federal deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next decade. The measure was passed...

Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

In the roughly 250 years since the Industrial Revolution the world’s population, like its wealth, has exploded. Before the end of this century, however, the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death. The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing. Although the trend may be familiar, its...

May 2023

What the debt ceiling standoff could mean for your retirement plans

President Biden is expected to meet with congressional leaders on Tuesday about the debt ceiling, with just about two weeks until the country could run out of money to pay its bills. Economists and administration officials have warned that a potential default on the national debt — for the first in U.S. history — would amount to financial disaster, wreaking havoc on the domestic economy and rattling global markets, too. "Our economy would fall into a significant recession," Biden told reporters...

US. Debt-ceiling apocalypse could offer opportunities as well, observers say

The ongoing debt-ceiling standoff between Democrats and Republicans could result in buying opportunities for institutional investors as long as widespread faith that the two sides will eventually do whatever is necessary to avoid a U.S. debt default proves well-founded. If not, all bets are off. For now, even as the "X-date" where the government won't be able to cover all of its Treasury bonds and bills coming due approaches— as early as June by some estimates — most market participants say...

Canada. British Columbia Investment Management hits pause on China deals

British Columbia's public pension manager has paused direct investments in China, the latest institutional investor to rethink its exposure to the world's second-largest economy due to geopolitical risks. A senior executive from British Columbia Investment Management revealed the policy during testimony this week to a Canadian parliamentary committee. Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan has made a similar move, suspending new investments in private assets in China, Bloomberg reported in January. BCI still has Chinese investments, mostly through public markets and index funds,...