June 2020

Emerging economies and COVID-19 Closing in a world of informal and small companies

By Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra, Marcela Eslava Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, smallfirm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on accounting identities and actual data, quantifies potential job and income losses during the crisis and recovery for economies with different economic organization structures. Our analysis incorporates differential exposure of jobs across categories...

Journal of Pension Economics & Finance

By: Monika Bütler, Olivia S. Mitchell, J. Michael Orszag. The Journal of Pension Economics and Finance (JPEF) is the only academic journal focusing on the economics and finance of pensions and retirement income. The ageing population, together with the shrinking workforce, heralds a growing pensions crisis, which has become a key public policy issue in developed countries and elsewhere. JPEF provides a valuable and influential forum for international debate in this area. The journal is co-sponsored by the International Organisation of Pension Supervisors...

COVID-19: The Regulatory and Supervisory Implications for the Banking Sector : A Joint IMF-World Bank Staff Position Note

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department ; World Bank. This joint IMF-World Bank note provides a set of high-level recommendations that can guide national regulatory and supervisory responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and offers an overview of measures taken across jurisdictions to date. Read the complete book here

Covid-19 pandemic: Africa is outperfoming the rest of the world

Obscured by the myriad stories of coronavirus global devastation are three headlines from the continent with no shortage of epidemics, man-made and natural disasters. That would be Africa. Of its 54 countries, six are among the top 10 fastest-growing economies in the world this year. The continent is the favorite bazaar for appreciating equity after Eastern Europe and has one of the stock market's best-performing industries: communications. Africa finds itself with fewer Covid-19 cases than other heavily...

The Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Pensions

By Charles Sutcliffe COVID-19 and the lockdowns have had a big global economic effect, as well as increasing mortality. We examine the effects of COVID-19 and the resulting relaxations of pension regulations on pension schemes. Those who transfer their pension or withdraw cash from their pension pot while asset prices are depressed by COVID-19 are losers; as are members of defined benefit schemes with a deficit whose employer fails due to COVID-19. The increased mortality from covid-19 will have...

The Political Economy of Pension Financialisation

By Anke Hassel, Tobias Wiß The Political Economy of Pension Financialisation addresses – for numerous countries – how and why pension reforms have come to rely more on financial markets, how public policy reacted to financial crises, and regulatory variation. The book demonstrates how the process of pension financialisation reveals that pension policy is not only a social policy that affects retirement income, but also a financial policy that impacts savings rates, corporate finance and the economy. The chapters...

May 2020

Golden Aging: Prospects for Healthy, Active and Prosperous Aging in Europe and Central Asia

By Maurizio Bussolo, Johannes Koettl & Emily Sinnott The Europe and Central Asia region has among the oldest populations in the world. Europe, in particular, is approaching the end of a demographic transition toward population stabilization, and Central Asia, although still younger, is following quickly. Aging in Europe and Central Asia is different from that in Western Europe and East Asia in that populations are aging, while people are not necessarily living longer. The rise in the average age is largely attributable to...

J.P. COVID impact on markets: research update

By Michael Cembales The first table itemizes monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed by the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks in recent weeks, measured as Central Bank liquidity provisions, new fiscal stimulus programs and rate cuts. For context, new fiscal stimulus and total fiscal deficits in the US are roughly double the levels seen in 2008-2009, and the US fiscal deficit we project for 2020 of 15%-18% is only matched by deficits seen at the height of WWII in 1942-1943. ...

April 2020

What the Economic Downturn Could Mean for Pension Plans

By Mark Miller Investing guru Bill Bernstein has compared investors in defined-contribution plans to airline passengers sent to the cockpit to fly the plane. Bernstein would much prefer a retirement system that relies on defined-benefit pensions, with their professional management and automatic participation. The unfolding coronavirus crisis underscores the value of professional pension pilots--and the structure of defined-benefit plans, which don't rely on short-term market performance to meet near-term obligations. The same claim cannot be made for the 401(k) or IRA...

Debt headache compounds Kenya’s worries amid fears for economy

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to be felt in July when the country will need Sh630 billion to settle debts that will fall due. Kenya’s total debt reached a new high of Sh6.3 trillion on March 20. This position has been made worse by the depreciation of the shilling, which has reached an average of Sh106.7 to the dollar, one of the lowest this month. The debt position will get worse in coming months as...