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March 2025

07Mar

The Macroeconomy After Tariffs

By Davide Furceri, Swarnali A Hannan, Jonathan D Ostry & Andrew K Rose What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes? This study estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity, as well as higher unemployment and inequality, real exchange rate appreciation, and insignificant changes to the...

March 7, 2025
Articles, Labor Market, ,
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December 2024

06Dec

Argentina. Pensioners the big losers in Milei’s world

 Alicia Ceresoli yearns for the smell of new leather shoes and her mouth waters when she imagines sinking her teeth into a succulent steak, two indulgences the 80-year-old Argentine can no longer afford. Pensioners have taken the most pain in a year of budget-slashing by maverick "anarcho-capitalist" President Javier Milei, whose austerity measures have tipped an additional five million people into poverty since he took power last year. In September he vetoed a law that increased pensions by eight percent --...

December 6, 2024
News, Slider, ,
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05Dec

Pensions reform could unlock the UK economy

Make no mistake. Rachel Reeves’ maiden Budget was an assault on working people. The chancellor may not have directly hit people’s pay packets with an increase in income tax, national insurance or VAT, but families will see their living standards rise more slowly as a result. Businesses – the lifeblood of our economy – will invest less and charge consumers more. I’ll leave it there – for now. Enough has already been written about the Budget’s flaws and even though...

December 5, 2024
News, ,
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October 2024

30Oct

UK Budget and US election hot topics at pension seminar

The impact of the upcoming UK Budget and US election on pensions and investment markets was a key focal point at Quantum Advisory’s latest event. Finance, HR and pension professionals came together on 22 October to hear exclusive industry insights and market updates at the firm’s pension and investment breakfast seminar at the Celtic Manor Twenty Ten Clubhouse. Dan Redwood, a senior investment consultant and actuary at Quantum Advisory, opened the event with an overview of macroeconomics, gilts and equity markets...

October 30, 2024
News, ,
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17Oct

US Is Sleepwalking Into an Economic Storm

By Daron Acemoglu   Daron Acemoglu, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, received the Nobel in economic science this year. Inflation seems under control. The job market remains healthy. Wages, including at the bottom end of the scale, are rising. But this is just a lull. There is a storm approaching, and Americans are not prepared. Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape the U.S. economy in coming years: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and...

October 17, 2024
News, OP Ed, Op-Ed, , ,
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August 2024

28Aug

The geopolitical ripple effect of Asia’s ageing population

By 2050, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), one in four people in Asia will be aged over 60. This is a threefold increase compared to 2010. China, the economic powerhouse of the region, is projected to see a decrease of 220 million working-age individuals between 2011 and 2050. Japan’s population is expected to decline by 16 per cent by 2050, with the number of senior citizens living alone predicted to jump by 47 per cent. This demographic shift has far-reaching implications that demand the immediate...

August 28, 2024
News, ,
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July 2024

31Jul

The Future of Growth Report 2024

By World Economic Forum The Future of Growth Report 2024 introduces a multidimensional framework to assess the quality of economic growth across 107 countries globally. It characterizes nations’ economic growth across four dimensions: Innovativeness; Inclusiveness; Sustainability; and Resilience. The data and analysis presented may be used by a wide range of stakeholders to identify areas to improve, trade-offs to resolve or synergies to exploit. While every country has a unique growth pathway shaped by a wide range of circumstantial...

July 31, 2024
Books, Books, Reports, System Characterization, ,
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April 2024

26Apr

Economic Consequences of Pension Bailouts: Evidence from the American Rescue Plan

By Michael Dambra, Phillip J. Quinn & John Wertz Multiemployer pension plans (MEPPs) provide retirement benefits for 11 million participants, yet until recently, hundreds of these pension plans – covering 3 million participants – faced insolvency. We use the 2021 passage of the American Rescue Plan Act to examine how pension bailouts affect the management and administration of pension plans. Consistent with the ARP inducing moral hazard, we find that MEPPs increase risk taking in investment allocations, increase benefit payments,...

April 26, 2024
Articles, System Sustainability, , , ,
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03Apr

Insurance executives mixed on recession outlook — GSAM survey

Half of insurance company executives see the U.S. entering a recession in the next two to three years and credit quality deteriorating, but they still have a zeal to increase credit risk, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 13th annual global insurance investment survey. The survey of 359 global senior investment and finance professionals in the insurance industry shows 50% believe the U.S. will enter a recession in the next two or three years, although that sentiment varies by region....

April 3, 2024
News, ,
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January 2024

04Jan

PLSA reveals ‘pensions’ role in UK growth’ as top strategic priority for 2024

The Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) has announced that its top strategic priority for 2024 will be the role that pension schemes can play in supporting the UK economy. Outlining its strategic objectives for the year, the PLSA revealed that it would further develop its recommendations aimed at promoting investment by ‘suitable’ pension schemes in assets that can help drive UK growth, which were published last year. The updated recommendations will aim to ensure the government is equipped to make...

January 4, 2024
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