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November 2023

In search of financially sustainable pension systems: three benchmark models

By Ekaterina Cuéllar, Daniel Gamboa & Waldo Tapia  One of the great dilemmas facing countries around the world is to define a pension system that is financially sustainable in the face of increasing life expectancy, falling fertility rates and the consequent lack of generational replacement. Globally, pension reforms in countries with more advanced aging processes have focused on implementing parametric reforms and incorporating automatic adjustments of the main parameters to share productivity, financial and demographic risks. In this article we present the advantages...

US. UAW’s Big 3 Retirement Deals Fall Short of Pension Revival

The United Auto Workers had an overarching goal last summer as it headed into negotiations with Detroit’s Big Three: claw back as many concessions as possible from the Great Recession, then keep pushing for an even better deal. In many ways it succeeded, with retirement being a notable exception. While the union won big improvements for savings plans, its long-shot endeavor to bring back pensions for younger members went nowhere, even as it won historic gains in pay and the elimination...

UAE’s new end-of-service savings scheme for private and free zone workers begins

The UAE government's new savings retirement plan for employees in the private and free zone sectors to invest their end-of-service benefits and build long-term wealth takes effect from today and does not have a minimum salary requirement, the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation said on Wednesday. The Voluntary Alternative End-of-Service Benefits Savings Scheme, which was announced by the UAE government in September, is not mandatory but will require employers to register with the ministry if they choose to take part in the plan. For full-time employees...

October 2023

China, India face daunting challenge to grow retirement security amid demographic, cultural shifts

Retirement systems in China and India, home to the world's largest populations with around 1.4 billion people in each country, are still in nascent stages but are expected to grow as their economies expand and their demographics shift. In both countries, the first pension pillar — a state-sponsored pension system — has been seen as inadequate, and the second pillar — employer-sponsored retirement plans — is often insufficient in meeting people's rising post-retirement needs. A third pillar focused on building...

Europe’s defined contribution market poised for a boom

The defined contribution market in Europe is poised for significant growth, fueled by government reforms, growing importance of ESG for participants and increasing acceptance by stakeholders for DC to serve as a sustainable retirement solution. Figures released in June by the European Central Bank showed defined contribution plans making up 24.7% of retirement assets, at €646 billion ($680 billion). Cerulli Associates in 2022 projected compound annual growth rate of 9.6% for defined contribution in Europe over the next five years,...

Artificial Intelligence Policy: A Primer and Roadmap

By Ryan Calo Talk of artificial intelligence is everywhere. People marvel at the capacity of machines to translate any language and master any game. Others condemn the use of secret algorithms to sentence criminal defendants or recoil at the prospect of machines gunning for blue, pink, and white-collar jobs. Some worry aloud that artificial intelligence will be humankind’s “final invention.” This essay, prepared in connection with UC Davis Law Review's 50th anniversary symposium, explains why AI is suddenly on everyone's mind and...

Understanding Trends in Hispanic and African American Retirement Preparedness in the US

By Edward Nathan Wolff  Retirement income security refers to households’ ability to provide an adequate income stream during the period of their retirement from the labor force. Expected retirement income is based on four components: standard wealth holdings, defined contribution pensions, defined benefit pensions, and social security benefits. Using the Survey of Consumer Finances, I find that Black and Hispanic households made remarkable progress in terms of retirement income, poverty reduction, and replacement rates over 1989-2007. This was followed by...

The Role of Disability Insurance on the Labour Market Trajectories of Europeans

By Agar Brugiavini & Petru Crudu  This work documents the role played by disability insurance, typically part of a wider public pension provision package, on the labour market trajectories and retirement decisions. We will first employ a machine learning approach to estimate a Transition Probability Model able to uncover the most likely labour market histories and then evaluate the effects of policy reforms, including reforms to the eligibility for disability insurance benefits. The main contribution is the introduction of disability...

September 2023

Does a Requirement to Offer Retirement Plans Help Low-Income Workers Save for Retirement? Early Evidence from the OregonSaves Program

By Ngoc Dao  This study examines the first implementation of the state-run retirement savings program in Oregon, known as OregonSaves, in 2017. It offers early insights into the substantial impact of this mandated program on retirement savings among previously uncovered private workers. Results from difference-in-difference models using SIPP data indicate a 12 percent increase in Individual Retirement Account (IRA) ownership among Oregon workers after the program’s roll-out. Notably, the study discerns significant gains for lower-income, single, and older workers, as...

Pension Savings Are an Emerging UK Political Battleground

Nothing says an election is looming more than a raft of proposed policies that have been collecting dust on think tank shelves for years . UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has been dropping heavy hints of reforms and enhancements targeted at Conservatives’ core voters — namely people who follow changes in pensions and savings. The underlying theme is Buy UK equities. Hunt will seek to address getting UK savers to stop hoarding cash and making it easier for...