The Macroeconomic Impact of Fertility Changes in an Aging Population

By Neha Bairoliya, Ray Miller (Harvard University) & Akshar Saxena (Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health) We assess the impact of continued low fertility in China, versus a rebound in fertility due to the relaxation of the one child policy, on demographic and macroeconomic outcomes in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We use a rich model of human capital investment, public health insurance, pensions, private savings, and intra-family transfers to support the consumption of young and elderly...