March 2024

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

By Prof Stein Emil Vollset, DrPH, Emily Goren, PhD, Chun-Wei Yuan, PhD, Jackie Cao, MS, Amanda E Smith, MPA, Thomas Hsiao, BS, Catherine Bisignano, MPH, Gulrez S Azhar, PhD, Emma Castro, MS, Julian Chalek, BS, Andrew J Dolgert, PhD, Tahvi Frank, MPH, Kai Fukutaki, BA, Prof Simon I Hay, FMedSci, Prof Rafael Lozano, MD, Prof Ali H Mokdad, PhD, Vishnu Nandakumar, MS, Maxwell Pierce, BS, Martin Pletcher, BS, Toshana Robalik, BSc, Krista M Steuben, MS, Han Yong Wunrow, BSc,...

Global fertility rates to plunge in decades ahead, new report says

A new study projects that global fertility rates, which have been declining in all countries since 1950, will continue to plummet through the end of the century, resulting in a profound demographic shift. The fertility rate is the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime. Globally, that number has gone from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021 and will continue to drop to 1.59 by 2100, according to the new analysis, which was based on the Global Burden...

Africa Is Aging. Will It Become A Real Population Bomb?

Africa is the most youthful continent, with 70% of sub-Saharan Africa under age 30. With high fertility rates and objections to birth control, the youth population will continue to grow. Investing in young people is important for the continent’s transformation, but Africa also needs to prepare for a growing older population that will present new issues in the decades ahead. By the end of this century, Africa will be home to almost 40% of the world’s population, including a 15-fold growth in older adults, from...

Japan union group announces biggest wage hikes in 33 years, presaging shift at central bank

Japan's biggest companies agreed to raise wages by 5.28% for 2024, the heftiest pay hikes in 33 years, the country's largest union group said on Friday, reinforcing views that the county's central bank will soon shift away from a decade-long stimulus programme. The much-stronger-than-expected increase comes as the Bank of Japan looks close to ending eight years of negative interest rate policy. BOJ officials have stressed the timing of a pivot would depend on the outcome of this year's annual...

East Asian societies have the world’s lowest birth rates—and are learning that ‘throwing a bit of money’ at the problem isn’t solving anything

Governments across Asia—in Singapore and Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul—are facing a crisis: plummeting birth rates. For several decades now, people in East Asian economies have had fewer and fewer children. Last year, South Korea beat its own record for having the world’s lowest birth rate, reporting 0.72 births per woman for 2023, down from 0.78 in 2022. Singapore reported 0.97 births per woman, the first time the rate has fallen below one. Japan has one of the world’s oldest populations, with a median age of 49.5. Hong Kong, Taiwan,...

Thailand raises alarm on aging population, declining birth rates

Thailand officials engaged in discussions last week to exchange opinions, seek solutions, and address the challenges of the country's transitioning into an aging society and the younger generation's reluctance to have children. Varawut Silpa-archa, Minister of Social Development and Human Security, chaired the workshop on March 7 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center. The minister highlighted the demographic structure issues, including the declining birth rate and the increasing average lifespan. It is projected that by 2037, the proportion of children...

The gender pensions gap report 2024

By Joanne Segars, Lizzy Holliday & Laura Wilkinson The gender pensions gap- the difference in pension savings wealth between men and women at retirement age - is substantial. Allowing for typical working patterns, women's pension wealth is a third (33%) less, relative to men. These figures are the result of a lifetime of reduced earnings potential, increased time out of the workforce and other contributory factors. To bridge this gap themselves, women would need to work an extra 19 years in...

Gender Pension Gap in EU Countries: A Between-Group Inequality Approach

By Antonio Abatemarco, Elena Lagomarsino & Maria Russolillo  Pension entitlements are influenced by individual career paths and labor market conditions, which often result in gender-based disparities. Women face several challenges during their working lives, such as late entry into the labor market, the gender pay gap, discontinuous working careers, and early retirement due to family caregiving, which lead to lower pension incomes. This paper investigates the gender pension gap in nine European Union countries from 2004 to 2020. Our study...

Singapore faces shrinking population as total fertility rate falls below 1% for first time

Singapore, facing a dwindling population and a manpower shortage, has seen its resident total fertility rate (TFR) drop to an estimated 0.97 per cent in 2023, the first time it has dropped below one per cent in the country’s history. The TFR, which refers to the average number of babies each woman would have during her reproductive years, fell from 1.04 in 2022 and 1.12 in 2021, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) Indranee Rajah told Parliament on Wednesday. The...

February 2024

How South Korea Is Tackling Its Demographic Crisis

Some 24.5% of South Koreans aged 70 and above were still working as of January, local media reported Monday, as officials increasingly look to keep more elderly in the workforce to address a demographic crisis. Elderly employment figures have seen a steady increase since the country’s statistics authority started to collect the data in 2005. Among these workers, half of whom are aged 75 and above, 42.1% are considered “simple laborers” by authorities, referring to workers with jobs that are not specialized and require...