July 2024

China to allow delayed retirement to combat population woes

 China will gradually raise its statutory retirement age, now among the world's lowest, to allow people to work longer, as it struggles to relieve soaring pressure on pension budgets, with many provinces already facing deficits. The reform is urgent, with life expectancy having risen in China to 78 years by 2021 from about 44 years in 1960, outstripping the United States, and is projected to exceed 80 years by 2050.   Sunday's announcement came in a key policy document that also rolled...

World Population Prospects 2024

By United Nations  The 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-eighth edition of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends. This latest assessment considers the results of 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023, as well as...

The Impacts of Raising the Public Pension Eligibility Age on the Lifestyles of Elderly People: Evidence from Japan

By Shinya Inukai With many countries facing rapid population aging, the sustainability of public pensions has become a pressing issue. I evaluate the impacts, including both employment and time allocation, of public pension reform on the lifestyles of the elderly. In Japan, all residents aged 20 or older are covered by the public pension, with eligibility determined mechanically based on age. I focus on the reform raising men's eligibility age from 60 to 61 in 2001 and estimate its impact...

Pension Reforms, Expectations, and Labour Market Behaviour

By Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Irene Ferrari & Yuri Pettinicchi This study examines how expectations about institutional settings and their reform affect middleaged individuals’ labour market behaviour in the context of these reforms. We exploit time and cross-country variation in pension regulations in six European countries. We show that, following a 1-year increase in the pension eligibility age (SEA), individuals expect to claim their pensions around 3.6 months later on average - adjustments are larger among women compared to men. Individuals with...

Demographic crisis looms: UN warns S. Korea’s population to halve by 2089

The United Nations predicts South Korea’s population will shrink drastically to 25.85 million in 2089, roughly half its current 51.71 million. According to the UN’s latest population report released on July 17, South Korea’s population, currently at 51.71 million, will decline to 21.85 million by 2100, which is 42% of its present level. The UN forecasts that South Korea’s population will drop to the 40 million range by 2037, the 30 million range by 2060, and the 20 million range by...

UK. The new Labour Government and pensions: the employer perspective

The Pensions & Lifetime Savings team here at Burges Salmon has been closely following the UK’s general election and recently posted this passle on what the pension industry should expect from the new Labour Government. But what are the particular implications for Employers? Ahead of tomorrow’s Kings Speech, which we hope will offer greater clarity on the new Government’s immediate pensions priorities, here are some thoughts on key topics that Employers should be looking out for: The DB Funding Code Scheme funding is of course...

What immigration means for economies as populations get older

Projections by the Census Bureau predict that within 10 years, the number of people 65 and older in the U.S. will be larger than the number of people under 18. Populations getting older is a global trend for the long-industrialized countries — something with sweeping effects on economics, social safety nets and immigration. Marketplace’s senior economics contributor Chris Farrell has been looking into this. He spoke with “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio and the following is an edited transcript of their conversation. David...

Pensions Have ‘Critical’ Role in Strengthening Public Safety Workforce

For states and municipalities, offering public safety workers a sufficient defined benefit pension benefit is key to maintaining a healthy public safety workforce, according to new research, with a knock-on effect on both public safety and protecting property. For states and cities, offering pension plans to police officers and firefighters—particularly—is critical to sustain a robust public safety workforce to fight fires and maintain public safety, according to a National Institute of Retirement Security paper, “The Role of Defined Benefit Pensions in...

South Asia’s ‘youth bulge’ masks aging population

Zahirul Islam, a 52-year-old cafe manager in Dhaka, Bangladesh, has worked all his life supporting his family, with little to save for old age. Facing retirement at 59, Islam expects to work for another seven or eight years before holding down a job becomes unfeasible. "Then, it may not be possible to continue working," he said in an interview with VOA. In eight years, Islam turns 60, joining Bangladesh's growing population of older people. With little savings and no pension plan, he...

Career Expectations and Outcomes: Evidence (on Gender Gaps) from the Economics Job Market

By Brooke Helppie McFall, Eric D. Parolin & Basit Zafar This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008-2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job histories and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get...