October 2024

Can today’s pensions survive tomorrow’s longer lifespans?

The 2024 Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index (MCGPI) reveals the ongoing need for retirement system improvements globally, driven by declining birth rates and increasing longevity. The 16th annual report, released by Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan, and the CFA Institute, highlights how pension systems are adapting. The Netherlands remains the top-performing retirement income system worldwide, with Iceland in second place and Denmark in third. Pat Tomlinson, Mercer’s president and CEO, emphasized the growing importance of retirement income systems as...

Europe’s population crisis could shave 4% off its GDP by 2040, Morgan Stanley warns, and the options to solve it aren’t good

Europe’s demographic challenges are becoming a ticking time bomb for the region’s economy, with Morgan Stanley delivering a grim prediction for its effects on GDP. Morgan Stanley says Europe’s aging population could shave 4% off the Eurozone’s GDP by 2040 as people live longer and birth rates fall. The bank projects a significant loss of GDP based on predictions that Europe’s working-age population will shrink by 6.5% by 2040, due to a reduction in the number of working-age people producing output...

Assessing Immigration Impacts in Developing Countries. The Case of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

By Riccardo Magnani & Marie-Claude KAMAR This article analyzes the effects of low-skilled immigration in developing countries characterized by a large informal sector, high unemployment (especially among highly educated people), and low participation of women in the labor force. We use an OLG model to account for the general equilibrium linkages between the immigration shock, the level of wages and employment, the education choice, and the emigration choice made by natives. The model includes search and matching frictions in the...

US. Most older adults face ageism, and it’s taking a toll on their mental health

Discrimination against older people has become a pervasive part of American culture. Think birthday cards declaring someone "over the hill" and ads for "anti-aging" cosmetics. Most older adults say they experience ageism daily, according to a 2019 survey of more than 2,000 people between 50 and 80 conducted by the University of Michigan. Ageism, which includes stereotyping and discrimination based on age, is one of the most common forms of prejudice. A 2021 report from the World Health Organization found at least...

Swiss MP proposes integration of pension model for temp workers in second pillar

Christian Lohr, member of parliament (MP) for The Centre (Die Mitte) party in the National Council, the lower house of the Swiss parliament, has asked the government (Federal Council) to assess the possibility of integrating the pension model designed by the industry for temporary workers into the second pillar pension system, as an alternative to change occupational pensions after the public rejected the proposed reform in a recent vote. The pension fund model in the temporary employment sector enables many...

September 2024

Self-Control Preferences and Pension Means Testing

By Daniel Wheadon, Gonzalo Castex, George Kudrna & Alan D. Woodland We investigate the effects of self-control preferences on household life cycle decisions, macroeconomic outcomes, and the roles they play in determining optimal means testing of public old-age pensions. To that end, we develop a stochastic overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households that have Gul-Pesendorfer self-control preferences. First, we show that in economies with higher self-control costs lifetime savings diminish, while labor supply and retirement are postponed to later ages....

Korea promotes positive images of older workers amid aging population

As Korea is expected to become a super-aged society next year, with more than 20 percent of the population being 65 years or older, the government is stepping up efforts to promote positive images of older workers. The Ministry of Health and Welfare said on Monday that it will run a weeklong campaign to raise awareness of its efforts to create jobs for older adults and help improve perceptions of those who remain active in the labor market in the...

When the Abundance Ends: Economic Transformation, Population Aging, and Shrinking Lifecycle Surplus in China

By Feng Wang, Ke Shen & Yong Cai China’s age of abundance, driven by rapid increases in labor income and a favorable population age profile, led to a sizable surplus at the society level. Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) approach, this study updates results published in this journal a decade ago. It traces changes in labor income and consumption patterns in China in the 2010s, and compares them with those in the decade prior. Our results report significant shifts...

Chile cae al nivel más bajo de nacimientos en América

Entre 2013 y 2023 los nacimientos bajaron 29% en Chile, para alcanzar una tasa de fecundidad de 1,17 hijos por mujer, lejos del 2,1 necesario para el recambio poblacional, según el Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (INE). Según la División de población de Naciones Unidas, la fecundidad de Chile está debajo de países desarrollados como Italia, con una tasa de global de fecundidad (TGF) de 1,20; Japón y España, con 1,21. "Los cambios en torno a la reproducción en la sociedad chilena...

Jamaica. Low birth rate could affect country’s development goals

RESPECTED former public servant Reginald Budhan says if the fall in Jamaica’s birth rate continues unabated, the island’s vision for developed country status “will remain a dream”. Jamaica’s Population Health Status Report 2000–2022, which was tabled in Parliament in May, showed that the country continues to face a low birth rate problem with the total number of live births in the country declining sharply over the last 20 years. Overall, it said Jamaica’s crude birth rate, which is the number...