At the stroke of midnight on January 1, New York City welcomed its first new inhabitant of 2022: Leyla Gessel Tzunun Garcia, born as the new year began at Coney Island Hospital in Brooklyn. Read also India’s jobs crisis is more serious than it seems Given changing trends around population and fertility, though, there’s less competition to become the first baby of the new year than there used to be. Fewer babies were born in New York City in 2020 than...
Germany has long been ahead of the curve as a source of technical innovation and manufacturing. Now it is leading much of the developed world toward a demographic cliff edge that could put a damper on Europe’s largest economy, raising pressure on its pension system and pushing inflation higher for years to come. Economists forecast that Germany’s workforce could peak as soon as 2023 and then shrink by up to five million people by the end of the decade. While...
By David Bohl, Barry Hughes & Shelby Johnson There is a global demographic transition underway—mortality rates and fertility rates are declining in almost every country. Different countries are at different stages of this demographic transition, generally corresponding to their level of economic development, and progressing at different speeds. Declining mortality and fertility, along with migration, determine the changing age structures of countries. There are macro-economic, financial, and social burdens and benefits associated with different age structures. Since demographics is largely...
By Richard Jackson Elderly workers have become an increasingly critical driver of U.S. economic growth, accounting for almost 60% of all gains in U.S. employment during the 2010s. But since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020, more than one in 15 elderly workers have dropped out of the country’s labor force. Near term, the decline in elderly labor-force participation is slowing the current economic recovery. Long term, if the decline proves permanent, it could worsen the already challenging...
As birth announcements go, it was momentous. On November 24th India’s government declared that the country’s fertility rate had dropped to 2.0 children per woman. That is below the replacement rate—at which new births are sufficient to maintain a steady population—and puts India in the company of many richer economies. Indeed, fertility rates are now below replacement level in all four “ bric” countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), with the population probably falling in Russia and China. It...
By Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini & Istituto per la Ricerca Sociale Pensions are an important determinant of their beneficiaries’ economic independence. When examining independence for people of working age, we are led naturally to think about the gender pay gap. Focusing on gaps in pensions would be the natural follow-up (or sequel) to an interest in gender pay gaps. Those gaps would reflect the cumulated disadvantages of a career spent in a gender-biased labour market. This is even more true for older...
The region is projected to experience a rapid change in its population’s age structure. The proportion of citizens older than 65 will more than double in the next three decades. However, rethinking ageing in terms of health is crucial to inform public policy, argue Diego Wachs (LSE) and Andres Roman Urrestarazu (Stanford University). Read also Private pension plans in Latin America and sustainable finance Latin America and the Caribbean will experience a rapid change in their population structure over the next...
India's national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen below 2.0 for the first time, as per the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The findings covered 11 states and three union territories that were not included in the first set of data released in December 2020. The latest set of findings of the NFHS 2019-21 survey released by the Union Health Ministry on Wednesday revealed that the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime has dropped...
By Axel H. Boersch-Supan, Klaus Härtl, Duarte Nuno Leite & Alexander Ludwig Population aging has forced policy makers in most developed countries to reform pension systems with the aim to maintain or re-establish financial sustainability. This usually involves cost-cutting measures like later pension eligibility ages and lower replacement rates. Such reforms face harsh trade-offs with the objective of providing adequate pensions. Social welfare and inequality have emerged as crucial concerns about recent pension reforms, stressing that the lack of 'social...
The tight labor market shows no signs of easing in the coming year, likely making benefits and retirement plan options an important part of employee recruitment and retention. “This open enrollment season is an important time for employers to get the pulse of their workforce and staffing needs as they face another year of competition for talent,” said Sri Reddy, senior vice president of retirement and income solutions for Principal Financial Group. Principal asked retirement plan participants and plan sponsors about...
