October 2023

Don’t worry about global population collapse

The world’s massive human population is leveling off. Most projections show we’ll hit peak humanity in the 21st century, as people choose to have smaller families and women gain power over their own reproduction. This is great news for the future of our species. And yet alarms are sounding. While environmentalists have long warned of a planet with too many people, now some economists are warning of a future with too few. For example, economist Dean Spears from the University of...

By 2024, the 65-and-over age group will outnumber the youth group: new WHO report on healthy ageing

By 2024, it is estimated that the population of individuals aged over 65 years will outnumber those under the age of 15 in the WHO European Region. This trend means new social, economic and health challenges, which demand a focus on healthy ageing to mitigate the impact of an ageing population. WHO's report “Promoting physical activity and healthy diets for healthy ageing in the WHO European Region” navigates this shift, providing a roadmap for healthy longevity. Diets and physical activity...

September 2023

Does a Requirement to Offer Retirement Plans Help Low-Income Workers Save for Retirement? Early Evidence from the OregonSaves Program

By Ngoc Dao  This study examines the first implementation of the state-run retirement savings program in Oregon, known as OregonSaves, in 2017. It offers early insights into the substantial impact of this mandated program on retirement savings among previously uncovered private workers. Results from difference-in-difference models using SIPP data indicate a 12 percent increase in Individual Retirement Account (IRA) ownership among Oregon workers after the program’s roll-out. Notably, the study discerns significant gains for lower-income, single, and older workers, as...

UK: Future Of Work | Understanding An Ageing Workforce

We recently launched our report on an Ageing Workforce. The report was produced by Censuswide, who surveyed 700 employees aged between 35-55 and working in different industry sectors across the UK. It explores areas including benefits, pensions, retirement planning, training and skillsets and offers employers a valuable tool in their planning for incentivising, supporting and retaining older employees. The ability to work on a flexible basis and from different locations (including overseas) continues to be an important benefit, and one...

Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?

By Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom  This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950–2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020–2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout...

US. Retirement plan derailed: 40% forced to stop working earlier than expected

However carefully you may plan for your retirement, the actual event might still catch you off guard. Financial advisers across the industry report that 40% of their retired clients were forced into retirement, according to a recent survey by Edward Jones. And 97% of the financial advisers surveyed agreed with the statement that retirement involved more surprises and challenges than their clients expected. The biggest financial shocks for retirees were cost-of-living increases (29%), having to provide financial assistance for family or...

China can’t just rely on boosting births to address aging population issues, Renmin University professor says

China can't just rely on increasing childbirths to address its aging population issues, said Du Peng, vice principal of Renmin University of China. Regardless of how many children are born in China, the number of people who are aged 60 and above will roughly double to more than 500 million in the year 2050, he told reporters during a talk on Wednesday. To minimize the economic impact of such population changes, he said policymakers can take action today: by raising the...

Extending contribution-based social security schemes for workers in the informal economy and self- employed in Nepal

By International Labour Organization This brief was prepared by André F. Bongestabs and Suravi Bhandary based on the technical note produced by Pierre Plamondon, Senior Actuary, with the support of ILO’s Actuarial Services Unit, as part of the technical support provided by the ILO to the Social Security Fund of Nepal. The brief discusses various considerations that needs to be placed during the design and implementation of contribution-based social security for workers in the informal economy and self-employment. It is...

UK. Government announces new welfare reforms to help thousands into work

A consultation, launched today (Tuesday 5 September), will consider changes to the Work Capability Assessment, with proposals to ensure it is delivering the right outcomes for supporting those most in need. The consultation will look at updating the Work Capability Assessment’s categories so they better reflect the modern world of work and the opportunities more readily available to disabled people. Earlier this year, Government confirmed investment worth £2 billion to support disabled people and those with long-term health conditions into work,...

Minimum eligibility age for social pensions and house hold poverty: Evidence from Mexico

By David Escamilla Guerrero, Clemente Avila Parra & Oscar Gálvez Soriano This paper examines the impact of social pensions on old-age poverty. To achieve causal identification, we leverage the reduction in the minimum eligibility age of Mexico's flagship non-means-tested social pension program. We find that the program's expansion significantly reduced extreme poverty, mainly among indigenous seniors and in rural areas. However, it had negligible effects on labor force participation, suggesting that social pensions were not effective in ensuring minimum...