March 2017

Towards an Equitable and Sustainable Points System: A Proposal for Pension Reform in Belgium

By Erik Schokkaert (Catholic University of Leuven), Pierre Devolder (Catholic University of Louvain), Jean Hindriks (University of London) & Frank Vandenbroucke (University of Amsterdam) We describe the points system that has been proposed by the Belgian Commission for Pension Reform 2020-2040. Intragenerational equity can be realised in a flexible and transparent way through the allocation of points within a cohort. The intergenerational distribution is determined by fixing the value of a point for the newly retired and a sustainability parameter...

How Productivity Can Affect Pension Systems: The Case of Japan and Malaysia

By Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (University of Malaya) This research paper proposes a group of new indicators in the analysis of pension programs performance. Section one presents a new model of analysis to evaluate the pension systems. This new model, “The Pensions Systems Performance Evaluation Model (PSPE-Model)” is intended to offer policy-makers and researchers an additional analytical tool to study the impact of productivity on the pension systems performance from a new perspective. The PSPE-Model can be applied to the...

Understanding the Determinants of Financial Outcomes and Choices: The Role of Noncognitive Abilities

By Gianpaolo Parise (Bank for International Settlements) & Kim Peijnenburg (Netspar) We explore how financial distress and choices are affected by non cognitive abilities. Our measures stem from research in psychology and economics. In a representative panel of households, we find people in the bottom decile of non cognitive abilities are five times more likely to experience financial distress compared to those in the top decile. (more…)

Life-Cycle Consumption, Investment, and Voluntary Retirement with Cointegration between the Stock and Labor Markets

By Min Dai, Shan Huang & Seyoung Park (National University of Singapore) We present an optimal life-cycle consumption, investment, and voluntary retirement model for a borrowing and short sale constrained investor who faces cointegration between the stock and labor markets. With reasonable parameter values, there exists a target wealth-to-income ratio under which the investor does not participate in the stock market at all, whereas above which the investor increases the proportion of financial wealth invested in the stock market as...

Embedded Flaws of the Bulgarian Pension Funds or the Code Against the Insured

The Bulgarian pay-as-you-go publicly managed pension system is complemented by default and voluntary defined contribution pension funds, managed privately. The regulatory regime of the private pension funds is such that turns them into: unsuitable, uncompetitive and ineffective pension products. Privately managed pension funds are unsuitable, because they are not aligned with the investment horizon and the risk tolerance of individual investors. They are uncompetitive since their track record is of delivering below market returns for above market fees and charges....

Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms in Asian Pension Systems?

By Elif C. Arbatli, Csaba Feher, Jack Ree, Ikuo Saito & Mauricio Soto (International Monetary Fund) Automatic adjustment mechanisms (AAMs)-rules ensuring that certain characteristics of a pension system respond to demographic, macroeconomic and financial developments, in a predetermined fashion and without the need for additional intervention-have been introduced in many OECD countries to tackle public pension schemes' deteriorating financial sustainability. Incorporating AAMs-in particular linking retirement age to life expectancy-can be an important part of pension reforms in Asia. If implemented...

February 2017

Welfare and Generational Equity in Sustainable Unfunded Pension Systems

By Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee We evaluate several actual and hypothetical sustainable PAYGO pension structures, including: (1) versions of the US Social Security system with annual adjustments of taxes or benefits to maintain fiscal balance; (2) Sweden's Notional Defined Contribution system and several variants developed to improve fiscal stability; and (3) the German system, which also includes annual adjustments to maintain fiscal balance. For each system, we present descriptive measures of uncertainty in representative outcomes for a typical...

Retirement Security in an Aging Society

By James M. Poterba The share of the U.S. population over the age of 65 was 8.1 percent in 1950, 12.4 percent in 2000, and is projected to reach 20.9 percent by 2050. The percent over 85 is projected to more than double from current levels, reaching 4.2 percent by mid-century. The aging of the U.S. population makes issues of retirement security increasingly important. Elderly individuals exhibit wide disparities in their sources of income. For those in the bottom half of...

Pensions at Work: Socially Responsible Investment of Union-Based Pension Funds

By Jack Quarter, Isla Carmichael & Sherida Ryan The concentrated nature of share ownership on the world’s capital markets means that large institutional investors – insurance companies, mutual funds, and pension funds – own the bulk of the world’s listed companies. In many countries, a significant portion of these shareholdings is held in workers’ retirement savings, pension funds, and other investment vehicles – workers’ capital. As beneficial owners of these deferred wages, workers are theindirectowners of a substantial portion of the...