Death or Bust? The Risk with Post-Retirement Models: A Quantitative Evaluation

By Ross Pepperell, ,David Greenwood, Muhamed Alsharman The purpose of this report is to quantitatively evaluate whether commonly used models of asset returns pose a threat to the successful retirement of retirees. In doing so, we evaluate the whether the 4% ‘safe’ withdrawal rule holds with more realistic models of market behaviour. Our approach comprises a quantitative evaluation seven of the most common portfolio simulation approaches including: Simple analytic formula; Historical backtesting; Bootstrapping; Analytic Stochastic; Simple Monte Carlo; Filtered...