May 2023

Access to Pensions, Old-Age Support, and Child Investment in the People’s Republic of China

By Xiaoyue Shan & Albert Park This paper studies how access to public pensions affects old-age support and child investment in traditional societies. Guided by predictions from an overlapping generations model, we analyze the influences of a new pension program in rural People’s Republic of China, using a difference-in-differences approach. We find that the program crowds out transfers from working-age adults, especially men, to their elderly parents. Interestingly, the impact on child investment significantly differs by child gender. While adult...

Canada. British Columbia Investment Management hits pause on China deals

British Columbia's public pension manager has paused direct investments in China, the latest institutional investor to rethink its exposure to the world's second-largest economy due to geopolitical risks. A senior executive from British Columbia Investment Management revealed the policy during testimony this week to a Canadian parliamentary committee. Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan has made a similar move, suspending new investments in private assets in China, Bloomberg reported in January. BCI still has Chinese investments, mostly through public markets and index funds,...

China pursues high-quality population development to support modernization

China has sent a clear signal to adapt to the new normal in its demographics in an effort to boost modernization by improving the overall quality of its population. According to a meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs held last week, China is currently experiencing a trend of birthrate decline, population aging, and differentiation in regional population growth. The latest official data showed that China's population reached 1.41175 billion at the end of 2022, a drop of...

April 2023

China’s new private pension scheme draws $2.9bn in contributions

Contributions to China's fledgling private pension accounts have reached about 20 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) since their inception in November, with just under 70% of the funds invested, Caixin has learned, suggesting hesitation among some participants due to unfamiliarity with the system. Around 13.5 billion yuan has been invested across a range of eligible financial products, with the majority of the remaining funds just sitting idle in people's accounts, said people familiar with the matter. Bank deposits have been by far...

India. National Pension System likely to get a facelift

The recently-formed committee on the National Pension System (NPS) will review the nearly two-decade-old scheme with an intent to enable it to provide higher pensionary benefits, with higher contributions from both the government and employees. According to a source, the panel, headed by finance secretary TV Somanathan, might suggest guaranteeing a certain pension similar to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS), but without reverting to the non-contributory system. The proposal is to usher in the guaranteed component “in a graded manner”,...

‘Big news’ is India’s population growth is below replacement level: UN expert

While India's population at 1.4 billion has surpassed that of China's, the "latest big news" is that the population growth is below the replacement fertility rate in India and it has a "window of opportunity", according to Rachel Snow, the lead demographer of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA). The continued trajectory for India is that while the young population entering the reproductive phase will boost overall fertility, "given the fertility pattern already evident, we can start to anticipate the decline,...

India to overtake China as world’s most populous country this year

India has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, according to new UN data, marking a historic crossover moment for the two Asian rivals that are set to shape business and world affairs in years to come. According to the UN Population Fund’s World Population Dashboard, released on Wednesday, India’s population has surpassed 1.428bn, just overtaking China’s more than 1.425bn people. The update in population estimates came as the world body’s main agency that tracks demographic trends, the UNFPA, released...

China. Personal pension system holds room for more development

China's latest attempt at launching a personal pension system will result in the leapfrogging development of securities firms both in terms of additional income and business models, said experts. In mid-April 2022, the State Council, China's Cabinet, rolled out a plan to introduce the personal pension system. Thereafter, the multilayered system has begun to develop in China, comprising basic pension insurance, annuities and personal pensions. The plan officially kicked off in late November, with people in 36 Chinese cities and regions...

March 2023

Chinese cities are so broke, they’re cutting medical benefits for seniors

China's government, strapped for cash after years of enforcing a costly zero-Covid policy, is cutting medical benefits and planning to raise the retirement age, in deeply unpopular moves that are fueling widespread public anger. Thousands of elderly people have been taking to the streets since January to protest big cuts to monthly medical benefit payments. They've gathered in four major cities across the country, demanding local officials reverse the decisions. The changes are part of a national overhaul mainly intended to...

China’s Cities Are Buried in Debt, but They Keep Shoveling It On

China has long pursued growth by public spending, even after the payoff has faded. Cities stuck with the bill are still spending — and cutting essential services. In 2015, when Shangqiu, a municipality in central China, laid out a plan for the next two decades, it positioned itself as a transportation hub with a sprawling network of railways, highways and river shipping routes. By the end of 2020, Shangqiu had built 114 miles of high-speed rail, and today several national railways...