June 2019

18Jun

Brazil: The battle over pensions

The government’s difficulties are emerging clearly, with the weakness of its parliamentary group, stuck between the unpopularity of the reform and the clientelist pressures of the parties of the centre, unable to show their support for Guedes’ proposal. So, the visit of the minister ended in noisy confusion and an exchange of insults. The embarrassment of the minister representing the banking sector in the Commission led to a fall in capital markets. The next day was marked by the...

June 18, 2019
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May 2019

23May

Brazil pension chief says 250-270 lawmakers spoken in favor of pension reform

Parliamentary support in Brazil for the government’s pension reform bill is rising, with between 250 and 270 lower house deputies having spoken in favor of it, Labor and Pensions Secretary Rogerio Marinho said on Wednesday. Marinho’s remarks, made at a conference on pension reform, suggest the government may be getting closer to the 308 lower house votes it needs for the bill to then proceed to the Senate for final approval. Earlier this week, Marcelo Ramos, chairman of the...

May 23, 2019
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22May

Brazil Investors Bet on Pension Reform Approval. Once Again.

Brazilian assets tumbled over the past week as President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration faced nationwide protests, setbacks in the approval of key decrees and new strains in its relationship with Congress. Yet the prospects for pension reform are finally looking up. Political consultancy Eurasia raised the odds of approval of the government’s flagship economic proposal to 80%, up from 70%, citing lawmakers’ waning resistance to a measure deemed vital to Brazil’s finances. Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded the nation’s...

May 22, 2019
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10May

Brazil pension overhaul could turn foreign investment flow into deluge

Long-term foreign investment of well over $100 billion a year is ready to pour into Brazil if the government passes business-friendly reforms, according to some economists, providing fuel for an economy that failed to take off following a brutal 2015-16 recession. Brazil ranks second only to China among emerging markets in terms of drawing foreign direct investment, or FDI, in recent years. However, economists say much more capital is waiting on the sidelines and how much of that makes...

May 10, 2019
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08May

‘Savings will be half original estimate’: PMs slash Brazil pension reform expectations

Fund managers remain positive on the prospects of Brazil’s pension reform despite recent government talks having led them to slash in half the savings they expect the reform to generate. In February, President Jair Bolsonaro introduced to the country's lower legislative chamber a wide-ranging pension reform bill that was expected to result in savings of 1.07 trillion Brazilian reais ($270.7 billion) over 10 years. The bill cleared its first hurdle on April 23 when the lower house committee -...

May 8, 2019
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01May

Why the Future of Brazil’s Economy Rides on Pensions

Latin America’s largest economy, Brazil, is at a crossroads. Fixing its public finances could open the door to a virtuous cycle of expansion; failing that, it risks slipping deeper into junk-level credit ratings and sub-par growth. Much depends on the nation’s costly pension system, the target of the first sustained legislative push by President Jair Bolsonaro and his economic team. Mustering lawmaker support for pension reform failed as recently as 2017 under former President Michel Temer, and Bolsonaro’s effort...

May 1, 2019
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April 2019

30Apr

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Finally Gets A Win

Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and his party of newcomers and roughnecks finally cleared a legislative hurdle last week. An important step in Bolsonaro’s planned social security system reboot passed in the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ), which was no surprise. For Bolsonaro, a win’s a win, even if it is a small one in the overall scheme of pension reform. This is one step in a very drawn out process. And so while Brazil’s stock market is up on...

April 30, 2019
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26Apr

Brazil Legislators Finally Gather Pace in Pension Reform Push

After weeks of delays, Brazil’s lower house of Congress is on a roll, pushing ahead the government’s key pension reform by creating a long-awaited committee only days after declaring the bill was constitutional. Center-right PR party deputy Marcelo Ramos will head a lower house special committee that will debate potential changes to the bill. Committee discussions will take place between May and June, lower house Speaker Rodrigo Maia said on Thursday. The special committee represents the second step of...

April 26, 2019
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24Apr

Brazil. Government Declares Studies that Support Social Security Reform Confidential

The Minister of the Economy decreed that studies and technical data supporting a constitutional change to Social Security remain confidential as the matter progresses through the government. Thus, ordinary citizens who will be affected directly by changes in pensions and retirement funds, will not have access to arguments, statistics, and economic and social data that support the significant change. The decision to deny the publication of documents is partly in response to a Law of Access to Information...

April 24, 2019
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22Apr

Brazil. Commission Resumes Opinion Review on Pension Reform on Tuesday

The Commission for the Constitution and Justice (CCJ) of the Chamber of Deputies will resume this Tuesday (April 23rd) the examination of the rapporteur’s opinion, Delegate Marcelo Freitas (PSL-MG), on pension reform. Pressed by parties of the ruling base, the parliamentarian may present a complementation. “What we are trying to work on is the construction of a consensus that allows us to discuss a final text that serves the interests of Brazilian society without dismissing the text proposed by...

April 22, 2019
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