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June 2024

Economic & Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States (2022-2070)

By Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and economic developments prepared by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission, the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament. Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission. Get the report here

May 2024

Intergenerational risk sharing in pay-as-you-go pension schemes

By Helene Morsomme, Jennifer Alonso García & Pierre Devolder Population ageing undermines traditional social security pension systems that combine pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and defined benefits (DB). Indeed, demographic risk, if guaranteed benefits remain unaltered, will be borne entirely by workers through increases in the contribution rate. To avoid a substantial increase of the contributions and in order to maintain simultaneously the financial sustainability and the social adequacy of the public pension system, risk sharing and automatic balancing mechanisms need to be...

Generational AI: Digital inclusion for aging populations

As artificial intelligence (AI) applications become ubiquitous in products and services, it is more important than ever to ensure that they are appropriately aligned for positive use and avoid exacerbating social exclusions for an aging population. Based on discussions with leaders in equity, AI, and aging, and additional research, Generational AI: Digital inclusion for aging populations outlines the unique considerations for older adults within the AI lifecycle, barriers to digital inclusion that older adults experience regarding AI and suggested near- and...

Germany poised for stagnation with ageing population, warns IMF

The eurozone’s largest economy is heading for stagnation amid a period of rapid population ageing that will place intense strain on the state and public finances, the International Monetary Fund has warned. In a snapshot of the German economy, the fund said economic growth would slow markedly due to the generation of baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964retiring and the recent waves of immigration, which have hitherto replenished the labour force, subsiding. The Washington-based organisation, which has 190 member countries,...

Why half of Japan’s cities are at risk of disappearing in 100 years

With contributions from around 370 celebrities, intellectuals and cultural figures of the time, the April 1920 edition of the now defunct Nihon Oyobi Nihonjin (Japan and the Japanese) magazine ran a special feature on what the country would look like in 100 years. Sakio Tsurumi, then-director of the government's Forestry Bureau, predicted that the nation’s population would grow nearly five-fold to around 260 million by 2020, approximately double what it actually is now. Professor Riichiro Hoashi of Waseda University expected...

Up to 246 million older people may be exposed to heat risk by 2050 due to global warming

By Bob Yirka   A team of Earth and environmental scientists at the CMCC Foundation–Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, working with a pair of colleagues from Boston University, has found evidence suggesting that as many as 246 million people around the globe may be at risk of heat exposure by 2050 due to global warming and an aging population. In their paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the group describes how they used climate models to assess global hotspots and compared them with population projections for...

Centenarians Are on the Rise: How Living Longer Will Affect Society’s Economics

By JayDee Vykoukal   According to a Pew Research Center analysis of United States Census Bureau data, the number of Americans aged 100 and older is expected to more than quadruple over the next three decades. The population is projected to reach 422,000 in 2054, up from an estimated 101,000 in 2024. These centenarians aren’t the only aging demographic on the rise. The 2020 U.S. Census count found one in six Americans is over 65, compared to less than 1 in 20 in 1920. Older...

Retirement Planning: Does It Make Sense to Plan to Age 95?

BY  TED GODBOUT   A new report out this week provides an interesting take on whether it makes sense for retirees and near-retirees to base their retirement planning under the industry-wide assumption that they will live to age 95. Instead of simply using age as a factor in determining how much to save and spend for purposes of retirement planning, the report by HealthView Services examines the financial impact for clients of planning to age 95 versus beginning the discussion using actuarial...

Experts warn ‘silver tsunami’ poses threat to the economy as over-65s are set to outnumber children by 2030

Seniors are set to outnumber children for the first time in American history within six years, as experts warn that the country is about to struggle with a dramatically aging population. The 'silver tsunami' has already seen the burden on working age people double since 1960 when there were six workers for every over-65. And millions now risk having no-one to help them as the poorly-paid care industry is squeezed out by better paid jobs in a tight labor market. Economists have been...

Older Adult Employment: 2021 Annual Report

By SeniorLiving.org Workers over the age of 55 represent a huge and essential segment of the American economy, and their influence is growing. In fact, by 2030, one in four U.S. workers will be 55 or older. In part because they account for such a large share of the workforce, older adults have been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, and many states had a decline in the number of workers over 55 remaining in the workforce. But overall, the 55-and-older...