November 2023

Unionization of Retired Workers in Europe

By Vinzenz Pyka & Claus Schnabel We shed light on an understudied group: retirees in unions. Using representative individual-level data of 19 European countries, we find that the share of retirees in unions and the union density of retirees increased between 2008 and 2020. Econometric analyses indicate that on average retired workers' probability of union membership is 17 percentage points lower than that of active workers. This finding is consistent with social custom models and cost-benefit considerations. We further find that...

AI and Retirement – How It Will Affect Your Retirement Savings

By Carolyn Young  Artificial Intelligence (AI) is impacting humans more than any of us realize. It’s being used by marketers to gain customer insights, by manufacturers to automate processes, and by many businesses to analyze data and improve efficiency. AI’s ability to rapidly analyze large amounts of data has also given it a huge role in the financial industry, and thus can impact your retirement savings in a variety of ways. In fact, AI is being used most by the banking...

Societal aging and its impact on Singapore

By Cynthia Chen, Julian Lim, Abhijit Visaria & Angelique Chan  Societal aging is arguably one of our most critical demographic challenges (World Bank, 2016). Singapore is aging at a much faster rate compared to other countries. It will take only 27 years to transition from an 'aging society' in 1999 (7% of the population aged 65+) to a 'super-aged society' in 2026 (with 20% of its population aged 65+) (Tan Teck Boon, 2015). Japan, China, Germany, and the United States took, or will take,...

Cambio técnico y empleo post-pandemia en México

Por María Belén Conde, Agustín Filippo, Carlos Guaipatín & Lucas Navarro Este trabajo explora la evolución del empleo en México según su exposición al cambio técnico tras la recesión causada por el COVID-19. Se utilizan datos de encuestas de hogares oficiales entre el primer trimestre de 2019 y el segundo trimestre de 2022, e índices que miden la facilidad de automatización de las ocupaciones mexicanas y su posibilidad de realizarlas en forma remota. Si bien a nivel del empleo agregado...

Impacto de las remesas sobre la informalidad laboral en México: Un análisis espacial a partir de la metodología de datos panel para el periodo de 2020q1-2021q4

 Por Gladys Yazmín Quintana Durán Las remesas son utilizadas por los hogares receptores para financiar el consumo, principalmente; sin embargo, en algunos otros es destinado en actividades productivas informales, sobre todo cuando el acceso a créditos u otras fuentes de financiamiento son limitadas. Con la metodología de datos de panel espacial se estimó un modelo SARAR de efectos fijos durante el periodo de 2020q1 a 2021q4, partiendo de la hipótesis de que el incremento de los ingresos por remesas tiene...

The world’s largest pension funds – 2023

By Thinking Ahead Institute  The global top 300 pension funds is an annual study conducted by the Thinking Ahead Institute, in conjunction with Pensions and Investments. The research highlights high-level trends in the pension fund industry and provides information on how the characteristics of these top funds have changed. Key findings Assets Under Management (AUM) of the top 300 pension funds total US$20.6 trillion, having reduced by 12.9% in 2022, down from 8.9% growth the previous year Volatility and uncertainty in...

Health and Retirement: Heterogeneity in the Responsiveness to Pension Incentives

By De Fen Hsu, Melinda Sandler Morrill & Aditi Pathak Workers often time retirement around pension eligibility, yielding a strong instrument for retirement timing.  By estimating the characteristics of the complier population, we find heterogeneity by individuals' health status in the responsiveness to pension-related financial incentives to retire.  Workers in poor health do not uniformly retire earlier or later, but rather are less responsive overall to pension incentives.  Thus, characterizing compliers may yield different conclusions than simple comparisons of means. Source...

In search of financially sustainable pension systems: three benchmark models

By Ekaterina Cuéllar, Daniel Gamboa & Waldo Tapia  One of the great dilemmas facing countries around the world is to define a pension system that is financially sustainable in the face of increasing life expectancy, falling fertility rates and the consequent lack of generational replacement. Globally, pension reforms in countries with more advanced aging processes have focused on implementing parametric reforms and incorporating automatic adjustments of the main parameters to share productivity, financial and demographic risks. In this article we present the advantages...

Proyecciones del gasto público en pensiones España

Por Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones De acuerdo con la proyección, el momento de mayor gasto en pensiones se produciría a finales de la década de los 40. En 2050, en la proyección del  escenario base sin reformas, el gasto total en pensiones contributivas sería del 14,7% del PIB, y una vez sumado el gasto en clases pasivas y en pensiones no contributivas, alcanzaría el 15,8%. Una vez incorporado el efecto de todas las medidas aprobadas desde 2020,...

En busca de sistemas de pensiones sostenibles: tres modelos referentes

Por Ekaterina Cuéllar, Daniel Gamboa & Waldo Tapia Uno de los grandes dilemas a los que se enfrentan los países de todo el mundo es definir un sistema de pensiones que sea financieramente sostenible frente al incremento de la esperanza de vida, la caída de la tasa de fecundidad y la consecuente falta de reemplazo generacional. A nivel global, las reformas de pensiones en países con envejecimiento poblacional más avanzado, se han concentrado en implementar reformas paramétricas y en incorporar ajustes automáticos...