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December 2022

Declining US Natural Interest Rate: Quantifying and Qualifying the Role of Pensions

By: Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo We develop a life-cycle model and calibrate it to the US economy to quantify and qualify the role of the public pension system for the past and future trend of the natural interest rate, the so-called r∗. Between 1970 and 2015, past pension reforms mitigated the secular decline in r∗, raising it by around 1%, mainly through the positive effect of a higher replacement rate. As regards the future, we simulate the demographic trends, expected...

Conversion from DB to DC: The EU Pension Custodian

By: Hans van Meerten Worldwide we see a move to DC schemes. Most – if not all countries – choose the operate DB next to DC. However, in The Netherlands, the legislator choose for so-called conversion: transforming 'old' DB- to 'new' DC. In 2011, the Dutch legislator introduced the so called 'Pension Custodian'. It could only be used for the Dutch 2nd pillar DC IORP, the PPI. This Pension Custodion should *not* be confused with the IORP II Custodian. However, with the implementation of...

Spending Trajectories after Age 65: Variation by Initial Wealth

By: M Hurd & Susann Rohwedder   There has been extensive research on the importance of saving for retirement and on tools to support the accumulation of retirement wealth. Much less attention has been paid to the decumulation phase, that is, the spending down of wealth following retirement. Understanding the decumulation phase requires information about the spending patterns of older households and how those patterns evolve with age. This study uses comprehensive longitudinal data on total household spending from a survey...

The Underpensioned Index 2022 Edition

By The Pensions Policy Institute This report, the third in the series, provides an updated version of the Index, alongside recent data illustrating changes, particularly in the labour market and pension saving, that have been experienced by underpensioned groups since the first Index. Recognising that the current economic landscape is challenging, some of these changes may reflect current circumstances rather than long-term trends, and some of the policies that may be suggested as potential remedies to the underpensioned challenge may not be appropriate to enact during the...

Global Public Investor 2022

By OMFIF Most central bank reserves managers are resigned to a period of higher inflation and lower returns, according to a report published today by OMFIF. More than 75% of the central banks surveyed for the 2022 edition of Global Public Investor believe inflation will be sustainably higher or more volatile for a prolonged period. Just 20% of reserves managers think inflation will be transitory. At the same time, central banks believe the new macroeconomic environment will cause their portfolios to suffer....

Platforms Disrupting Reputation: Precarity and Recognition Struggles In The Remote Gig Economy

By Alex Wood & Vili Lehdonvirta Digitalisation and the use of algorithms have raised concerns over the future of work, the gig economy being identified by some as particularly concerning. In this article, we draw on 70 interviews in addition to participant observations to highlight the role of gig economy platforms in producing a novel form of reputational insecurity. This insecurity is generated by platforms disrupting the traditional operation of industry reputation in freelance markets. We highlight three areas of transformation...

Intergenerational Solidarity

By Alan Gutterman Aging is a natural progression of the life cycle and society will always have persons of different ages who need to learn to live alongside one another. One of the most consistent themes in the debate regarding the realization of the human rights of older persons is the need to strengthen “intergenerational solidarity” between and among all levels of families, communities and nations in order to achieve social cohesion and a society for all ages and build...

Can Investors Save the Planet? – NZAMI and Fiduciary Duty

By Tom Gosling & Iain MacNeil Asset manager signatories of the Net Zero Asset Manager Initiative, part of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, have committed to investing in line with the Race to Zero goal of limiting global warming to 1.5oC with limited or no overshoot. Given that a recent report from United Nations Environment Programme says that there is “no credible pathway” in place to 1.5oC, we explore the implications for asset managers, as fiduciaries, of investing...

Inclusión financiera en México: retos y perspectivas

Por  Irina Alberro, Max Henderson,  Antonio Yúnez Naude El libro reúne una serie de análisis y estudios que se han venido desarrollando en México sobre el tema de la inclusión financiera y los alcances que ésta ha tenido dentro de la población en condiciones de pobreza. Es una investigación que persigue presentar un panorama de la oferta y demanda de servicios financieros en el país, analizando las localidades y así demostrar que los niveles de inclusión financiera en México son sumamente...

Inteligencia artificial y finanzas: Una alianza estratégica

Por Andrés Alonso-Robisco y José Manuel Carbó Recientes avances tecnológicos, como el almacenamiento masivo de datos y la computación en la nube, están dando lugar a un mayor uso de la inteligencia artificial en la economía y las finanzas, y modificando aspectos fundamentales tanto para entidades como para supervisores. En este documento revisamos las principales tendencias de esta transformación, especialmente el uso de algoritmos de aprendizaje automático para la predicción en entornos de incertidumbre, y detallamos algunos de los casos de...