China Daily’s Chen Meiling interviewed Yuan Xin, a professor of demography at the Population and Development Research Institute, School of Economics of Nankai University in Tianjin, on the significance of the latest population data. Following are the extracts from the interview:

Q: The Chinese mainland’s population reached about 1.41 billion at the end of 2021, an increase of 480,000 over 2020, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in mid-January. What is your view on the mainland’s birth rate data?

A: The number of newborns last year－10.62 million－is the lowest birth rate since the 1960s. When deaths are stable at around 10 million per year and births continue to drop, it suggests that China is entering a zero population growth period. After staying at zero-growth for a few years, it will go into a stable, normalized negative growth. In other words, China’s population may reach its peak of about 1.42 billion.

Q: What do you think led to the decrease in the number of newborns?

A: The family planning policy and the rapid social and economic development promoted the trend. With the increases in income, education and employment, especially among women, the birthrate naturally declined. It conforms to the law of development in every country in the world.

The trend of a dropping fertility rate was evident as early as the 1970s and 1980s. Since 1992, the fertility rate has stayed at a low level. Due to the longer period of education in China, people are getting married, and having children, at a later age.

With economic growth, the costs of living and raising children are increasing, putting more pressure on families. Moreover, families have weaker demand for a certain number of children and stronger demand for quality. They tend to centralize their limited resources to cultivate “brilliant” children.

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