There were 19,071 more births than deaths in 2023, according to data released by Stats NZ today.

This is the lowest annual natural increase since 1943, when there were 17,562 more births than deaths.

There were 56,955 live births and 37,884 deaths registered in New Zealand in 2023.

“2023 had the lowest number of births registered in 20 years,” population insights analyst Rebekah Hennessey said.

“The number of deaths in 2023 was slightly lower than in 2022, but higher than in the years prior.”

In simple terms, the number of deaths generally increases as the population both grows and becomes older. The number of births, however, is driven by a more complex mix of social and demographic factors that change over time.

Record low fertility rate

Between 2022 and 2023, there was a 3 percent decrease in the number of births, while there was a 3 percent increase in the number of women aged 15–49 years (the ages at which most births occur).

National population estimates: At 31 December 2023 has more information on population growth.

The combination of there being fewer births and more women in the population resulted in a record-low fertility rate of 1.56 births per woman in 2023. The total fertility rate is the average number of births that women in New Zealand would have over their lifetime, given current birth rates.

The total fertility rate has been below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman since 2013. The replacement rate is the number of births women need to have on average for the population to replace itself in the long term, with no migration.

“The latest decline reflects a continued trend of smaller average family sizes and increased rates of childlessness, although the total fertility rate is also affected by changes in the age of giving birth,” Hennessey said.

Declines in fertility rates in New Zealand and internationally reflect a range of factors. This includes changes in female participation in education and work, changes in costs of living and raising children, and changes in access to contraception.

Parenting and fertility trends in New Zealand: 2018 further discusses trends in fertility.

Life expectancy stalls

Based on death rates during 2021–2023, a newborn boy can expect to live, on average, 80.3 years, and a newborn girl 83.7 years.

These life expectancies are slightly higher than they were in 2017–2019 (80.0 and 83.5 years), and slightly lower than they were in 2020–2022 (80.5 and 84.0 years).

“The record number of deaths in 2022 – caused by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as population growth and ageing – has suppressed gains in life expectancy,” Hennessey said.

Stats NZ produces abridged life tables for rolling three-year periods, to pool data that can be sparse for some ages. The abridged life tables for 2021–2023 use 2018-base population estimates for that period.

Read more @stats.govt