Italian Premier Wins Populist Support for Budget Offer to EU

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte forged a deal with populist leaders to submit a revised budget proposal to the European Commission, in a bid to avert fines against Italy.

Conte’s euroskeptic deputies Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio, who hold most of the political power in the administration, set aside their opposition to concessions at talks running late into Sunday night and agreed on a new package to send to Brussels, government officials said.

Investors aren’t pricing in a deal just yet though. Italian bonds were little changed in early trading with the 10-year yield spread over German bunds at 269 basis points. That’s down from a five-year high of 327 basis points last month, but its still more than twice the level it was before the coalition took office.

The new plan confirms the 2019 deficit target will be lowered to 2.04 percent of GDP from 2.4 percent as Conte flagged to Brussels last week. The government identified about 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) of additional funds — without specifying where they’ll come from — and lowered the projected cost of new welfare payments to 7.1 billion euros from 9 billion euros.

Read More: Italian Populists’ New Budget Math May Be Hard for EU to Believe

“We’ve reached agreement on everything,” Salvini said, adding the budget would be “within limits that should please the EU.” Di Maio said there was no change or delay to a citizen’s income for the poor, nor to a lower retirement age — the pledges he and Salvini have fought hardest for — in the new budget, according to a report from Ansa news wire. He said tax cuts were also included.

The European Commission could possibly accept a deficit of 2.04 percent, so long as the policy details are rigorous enough and the economic assumptions are reasonable, a European Union official said. Italy has signaled that going below 2 percent is a red line for the coalition, the official added, asking not to be named, as the matter is sensitive.

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