On January 28, the state-run website Eco Iran published a report titled “Iran’s Population Is Getting Older,” highlighting the significant demographic shifts in Iranian urban households over the past decade (2014–2024). The report reveals a troubling trend: the decline of the young population and the rapid aging of society, posing serious economic and social challenges.

Demographic Shifts: A Declining Young Population
A review of official statistics underscores a clear decline in the birth rate. The share of children under one year of age has dropped from 0.6% to 0.4%, while the 1-5 age group has declined from 6.4% to 4.7%. More strikingly, the proportion of individuals aged 21-30 has plummeted from 20.2% to 12.7%—a 7.5 percentage point decrease. This decline suggests that many young Iranians are either emigrating or delaying family formation due to economic hardships.

Experts attribute this trend to widespread poverty, high unemployment, and financial insecurity. The soaring cost of living, lack of stable jobs, and insufficient government support have forced many young people to postpone or abandon plans for marriage and children. As a result, Iran is moving rapidly toward an aging society, a transformation that will have long-term consequences.

The Rising Elderly Population and Its Consequences
While the young population is shrinking, the proportion of middle-aged and elderly citizens is rising sharply. The 51-60 age group has increased from 6.6% to 10.3%, while those aged 61-70 have grown from 4.5% to 6.3%. The share of people aged 71 and above has also risen by 1.8 percentage points. This aging trend is placing immense pressure on Iran’s already fragile social security systems, healthcare services, and pension funds.

These pressures are already being felt, particularly in the pension system. The Iranian regime has drained pension funds to finance regional conflicts and military projects, leaving retirees struggling with poverty. Widespread protests by pensioners across Iranian cities reflect their growing frustration with low pensions that fail to keep pace with inflation and skyrocketing living costs.

Economic Implications of an Aging Society
The aging population is exacerbating Iran’s economic downturn. A shrinking workforce—particularly the declining share of 21-30-year-olds—has led to reduced economic productivity and slower GDP growth. The government’s financial mismanagement, including diverting resources to proxy wars and military projects, has left the economy in shambles. As a result, young Iranians face bleak job prospects, further discouraging family formation and accelerating youth emigration.

Additionally, rising divorce rates and declining marriage rates are compounding the demographic crisis. Economic pressures not only deter young people from getting married but also push many existing families toward separation due to financial instability.

The Need for Urgent Reforms
Addressing Iran’s population crisis requires profound economic and social reforms. Increasing the birth rate and slowing the aging trend depend on policies that ensure job security, boost income levels, and provide financial support for young people. However, the current regime has no plan to improve people’s livelihoods. Instead, its misguided policies are the root cause of Iran’s economic crisis, rising poverty, and mass youth emigration.

Ultimately, a young and dynamic society can only thrive if its youth have hope for a better future. Yet under the current political structure, Iran is on a path toward further demographic decline. Without fundamental changes, the aging crisis will continue to deepen, threatening the country’s long-term stability and economic viability.

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