Societies are becoming older, smaller, and lonelier, with shrinking labor forces, stagnant productivity, declining growth, and overstretched health care and social protection systems. The economic and social consequences of global aging are enormous and will affect how the world manages other global challenges. Population aging could reduce GDP growth by 0.5–1.0 percentage points a year, for example—an effect on output that is greater than the impact of climate change.

The demographic crisis has a high degree of certainty in the short and medium terms. The projections of population changes in the next 20-50 years are largely accurate because they are driven by slow-changing and well-understood factors such as fertility and longevity rates. The longer-term demographic projections bear higher uncertainty, but even these are significantly more precise than the predictions of complex, multi-layer models used for other global hazards.

The demographic crisis has no perceivable upsides. New technologies, like hydrogen fuel cells or industrial carbon capture, could mitigate or eliminate many anthropogenic effects of modern civilization and significantly improve economic outcomes. In contrast, extending longevity appears to be reaching its limits, and no technology or social engineering in sight is expected to reverse the global decline in fertility rates. New health and economic shocks or major wars could further accelerate the demographic decline. The unprecedented nature of this crisis also means that we cannot rely on earlier historical episodes for guidance on how this upheaval will unfold and how to respond to it.

Why aging flies under the radar

Transformation of this magnitude, reshaping societies and economies, should dominate the public discourse and policy agendas. Why, then, despite its unprecedented severity and certainty, does the demographic crisis remain in the shadow of climate change, migration, poverty reduction, and other global priorities? Several factors may help explain the relative lack of attention this crisis garners.

Lower media visibility

The demographic crisis does not manifest itself in visible, dramatic events that grab immediate attention. It unfolds gradually and often reveals itself through statistics, making it less compelling for media coverage than other crises. To many people, especially younger generations, the crisis feels abstract and distant. People tend to give stronger weight to payoffs that are closer to the present time, the so-called “present bias.” Population aging and declining birth rates are perceived as “future problems” that are difficult to personally relate to.

Limited business and political interests

The demographic shift has a systemic, profound, but diffused effect on economies. Unlike other global challenges, it is not concentrated on a few industries or sectors, generating support and opposition from powerful business and political interest groups. The demographic crisis is driven by millions of individual choices and societal trends, making it harder to mobilize public opinion around it, as—there is no clear antagonist or responsible parties to rally against. At the same time, discussing the impacts of population aging, such as increasing costs of health care and reforms of the pension systems, might be perceived as favoring the needs of one generation at the expense of others.

Lack of temporal urgency

The demographic crisis has no distinctive tipping points or thresholds beyond which the situation would deteriorate quickly, thus creating a sense of urgency and the need for immediate action. The demographic sustainability agenda competes against—and is losing out to—shorter-term priorities such as reducing inflation and unemployment and boosting economic growth. It is also overshadowed by the concurrent positive narratives about aging, such as advances in longevity, the potential of the “silver” economy, and the role of AI and automation in solving most of the population aging problems. While important and, in some cases, valid, these arguments could obscure the urgency of the response.

Perceived actionability

Many other global challenges are seen as having relatively straightforward and easy-to-conceptualize solutions, with compelling success stories and promising directions forward. Advances in the development of mRNA vaccines give hope for fighting future pandemics. New renewable energy sources, more efficient, circular economies, and coordinated country actions to reach net-zero emissions may help stem the climate change crisis. The Green Revolution significantly reduced the number of the world’s poor.

In contrast, addressing population aging or declining birth rates involves complex social and cultural factors that may seem less amenable to direct policy intervention. No country has reversed the demographic decline in the longer term, as demonstrated by the recent experiences of France, Hungary, Russia, and Poland. This lack of proven solutions discourages public discourse and political attention.

The crisis also questions the traditional economic models of development based on continuous economic growth and expanding consumer markets. Some reluctance to confront the crisis could be attributed to the need for a fundamental rethinking of economic paradigms and measures of prosperity.

Global versus national framing

Although population aging affects virtually every country, it remains largely a national policy issue. Some spillover effects are present, but in many cases, country strategies to mitigate this crisis are a zero-sum game (for example, when developed countries compete for productive migrants). This is in stark contrast with other global crises, such as climate change, that are impossible to resolve without close international coordination and require conferences and high-level committees to elevate the status of such crises.

Cultural sensitivities and social norms

The only way to prevent demographic decline is to increase fertility rates. Nobel Laureate James Heckman identified five drivers of fertility decline: shifting social norms reflecting parenthood as a personal choice rather than productive societal expectations; career aspirations delaying or discouraging parenthood; economic challenges such as education and housing costs and job security; cultural and media influences (for example, the negative impact of the soap operas on fertility in Brazil); and environmental concerns like climate change.

But discussions about women’s reproductive choices are inherently personal and politically charged, as they can be seen as conflicting with decades of progress toward expanding women’s rights and freedoms. Political leaders and media might be hesitant to openly face demographic challenges because of the difficulties of addressing demographic sustainability without appearing to infringe on women’s autonomy or suggesting that women should prioritize childbearing over other life choices.

There is an important asymmetry in approaches to reduce and increase fertility. Fertility-reducing policies, which were successfully implemented in many countries in the 20th century, coincided with other socioeconomic trends, and the measures were rather mechanical (providing contraceptives and family planning services, for example). In contrast, adopting pro-natal policies requires people to make life changes at high costs to career, finances, and lifestyle. Strategies to overcome the challenges of population aging must deal with politically and ethically charged issues by revising existing social contracts, questioning cultural expectations, and potentially conflicting with hard-fought-for rights and freedoms. The media, politicians, the research community, and civil society are reluctant to openly engage in these complex and controversial topics. But the cost of such hesitation is high. The gravity and urgency of the escalating demographic crisis call for immediate action.

Conclusion

Developed countries became wealthy before they became old. Rapidly aging developing countries will become old before they become rich. This reversal of the historical pattern threatens to create a cascade of social and economic crises that the current development paradigms are ill-equipped to handle. The international development community should place the demographic sustainability agenda at the center of global priorities, mobilize resources, and generate new knowledge to help countries prepare for the effects of aging. The world must act now to prevent this (almost) invisible crisis from becoming insurmountable.

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