The United Nations predicts South Korea’s population will shrink drastically to 25.85 million in 2089, roughly half its current 51.71 million.

According to the UN’s latest population report released on July 17, South Korea’s population, currently at 51.71 million, will decline to 21.85 million by 2100, which is 42% of its present level.

The UN forecasts that South Korea’s population will drop to the 40 million range by 2037, the 30 million range by 2060, and the 20 million range by 2080. The UN’s outlook is more pessimistic than that of Statistics Korea, which predicted that the population would fall to the 40 million range by 2041 and slide to the 30 million range by 2065.

Korea’s elderly population, aged 65 and over, accounts for 19.3% of the total population. A society is classified as an “aging society” when people aged 65 and over exceed 7% of the total population. When this cohort constitutes 14% or more of the population, the society is defined as an “aged society” and “super-aged” when this proportion surpasses 20%.

Korea is set to become a super-aged society next year, with 20.3% of its population aged 65 and older. The country became an aged society in 2017, 17 years after transitioning to an aging society in 2000, and will transition to a super-aged society in just eight years. By 2083, nearly half of the population (48.8%) is expected to be aged 65 and older, according to the UN.

In 2045, around 36.9% of Korea’s population will be 65 and older, surpassing Japan’s 36.8% elderly population for that year. Although Japan currently has a higher proportion of elderly citizens, with a 10 percentage point gap, Korea is expected to overtake Japan in the near future.

South Korea’s total dependency ratio is 42.5. The dependency ratio measures the number of dependents aged zero to 14 and over 65, supported by the working-age population aged 15 to 64. The UN estimates that this ratio will exceed 100 by 2058, meaning one working-age person will need to support one non-working-age person. According to the UN’s projections, the total dependency ratio will surpass 133 by 2083.

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