If population issues were like steel production, China would be making all the right moves. A rise of 10% in steel production can be generated simply by a government decree. Unfortunately for China, the same top-down, party-directed steps that would generate that increase in steel is not likely to be the right approach to reversing the population decline, and might make the problem worse.

The problem itself is not unique to China. Many other countries face the challenge of a shrinking and aging population, but the numbers are stark in China. There are fewer Chinese in the workforce and fewer Chinese overall. I discussed the fundamentals of this issue in an earlier article. In short, having devoted considerable resources to reducing the birth rate, the government of China is now discovering that it is difficult to encourage more births. Additionally, societal changes, such as increased prosperity and continued, though tapering, economic growth mean that people are increasingly content with fewer children, or no children at all.

The good news for China is that it recognizes this is a potential problem. We see increased public discussion of this issue, most recently at the National Women’s Congress, the every five years meeting of the Chinese Communist Party’s women’s affiliate. This might represent the highest level and most public treatment to date of the issue of birth rate.

The bad news is that China’s response, initially at least, might make the problem worse. When General Secretary Xi Jinping addressed the Women’s Congress, he did not focus on the need for financial incentives to help new moms or the need to create family-friendly workplaces, with flexible leave policies or day-care centers. Instead, his approach was purely hortatory:

“We should actively foster a new type of marriage and childbearing culture,” said Xi. He added that “It is necessary to strengthen guidance on young people’s perspectives on marriage, childbearing and family.” In other words, we will get the right outcome by telling people to get the right outcome. We need more steel, people. Let’s get moving.

It is no surprise that the leader of a single-party political system that requires loyalty throughout believes that outcomes can be changed with a party directive. There are certainly parts of modern China where this is more true, just as there are likely to be other parts of society where this is less true. My guess is that when it comes to the most sensitive and personal dimensions of human nature, party instructions hold less sway.

Sociologists tend to agree that rising affluence and education as well as women’s changing role in society all play a role in a declining birthrate. As opportunities open up for women, they can choose a career and an identity in addition, or as an alternative, to motherhood. Other countries accept this reality and try to provide pro-natalist incentives. China’s response is to simply argue for more births.

My hunch is that trying to change human nature by simply telling humans to change will have limited impact. Even in a less sensitive area, say workplace punctuality, adding an incentive for prompt arrival, or a disincentive for late arrival, will do a lot more than a speech about everyone’s duty to be on time. So Xi’s speech sets a tone, but without other changes it is unlikely to accomplish the goals.

Indeed, it might be somewhat self-negating, if one of the reasons for forgoing motherhood is that women want to feel empowered and in control of their lives. Xi’s response is to tell women what to do. To “strengthen guidance” is to disempower women, with the Communist Party communicating its disapproval. If workers can “lie flat” on the job—the Chinese term for quiet quitting—you can be sure that young women can politely attend lectures on motherhood and decide to defer a decision.

An additional problem for China is given its autocratic nature, no one in the government can even suggest that Xi has it wrong. They need to applaud him, mistaken or not.

This makes the wrong turn likely to self-perpetuate. So the 2023 statistics will show a decline, but the government response will be that society is still recovering from Covid. The 2024 statistics will show another decline, but the response will be that the government just started messaging on childbirth and these things take a while. It will be the decline shown in the 2025 statistics, at the earliest, before there starts to be a sense China is going the wrong way.

Along the way, China will double down—pushing harder on lecturing women. Maybe few in China take pronouncements from the China’s Women Congress seriously, but party and government officials must all take Xi Jinping seriously. If one shows loyalty to Xi by lecturing women on having more babies, we are going to have more such lectures. If women chafe at such lectures, we are going to have fewer babies.

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