China’s Coming Pro-Natalist Campaign
Birth rates in China are crashing. Last year, they fell to the lowest level since Mao Zedong founded the modern Chinese state in 1949.
This poses immense long-term challenges for everything from pensions to labor markets. Beijing’s leaders realize this. This is why China’s notorious “one-child policy” was loosened nationwide to a two-child one back in 2015.
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But the next step will be far more dramatic. After decades of attempting to limit births, China is now moving in the direction of encouraging them. At last month’s national legislative meeting, premier Li Keqiang strongly hinted a national pro-natalist policy was in the works with his call for the country to attain an “appropriate” fertility rate.
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This is exactly what has happened throughout East Asia. Facing their own demographic headwinds, Japan took this step in the 1990s; South Korea and Taiwan, in the early 2000s. Policies adopted are broadly similar, including baby bonuses, new parental leave policies and expanded preschool availability.
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Effects are also similar: very little. Fertility rates in East Asia have not increased. They have instead plunged to the lowest in the world.
Read more @The National Interest
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