Many countries in the world now face a shrinking, and simultaneously aging, population, which, if not promptly reversed or mitigated, could negatively impact the sustainable growth of their economies. A sufficient number of people is indispensable for running and reinforcing the operation of a functioning economy.

Consequently, policymakers or relevant government authorities need to take note of the evolution of the ongoing changes of demographic patterns, and readjust and optimize their population policies so as to plan for a resilient future and avert economic upheavals caused by a rapidly aging population.

Japan and South Korea, the two East Asian countries with fairly developed economies, have been searching, in the past decades, for effective cures to ease their population aging, but to little avail, if any, as many couples in the two countries refuse to get married or to have babies.

China, currently the world’s largest emerging market economy, shares a largely similar Asian societal and family culture as its two neighbors. Increasingly, China’s younger generations – the millennials and Generation Z – are reluctant to have a big family, with many couples preferring to give birth to only one child or choosing to be “dink” (double incomes, no kids). As a result, China will most likely encounter a shrinking and aging population, too.

China’s population dropped for two consecutive years in 2022 and 2023. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s population declined by 2.08 million in 2023 to 1.409 billion people. In 2023, about 9.02 million babies were born, compared with 9.56 million in the previous year.

It is of great importance to change this by inspiring and incentivizing couples to have more babies. Chinese demographers advise that a national campaign to spur births is imperative.

As seen in many developed economies, such as Japan and Germany, a continuously plummeting fertility rate will cause a shift toward an aging population that will ultimately strain national health insurance, social security programs and healthcare infrastructure. Any country with a shrinking and aging population will inevitably have to contend with a labor shortage, which may restrict the potential of economic development.

The resolution adopted in July by the third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee proposed ramping up incentives, including childbirth subsidies, more affordable child-care and other measures of efficacy to spur more births. The country ought to do more to arrest the trend of its population decline and mitigate drastic changes in demographic patterns that may produce unwanted complications for the economy.

China started to implement the “third-child” policy in 2021, after having adopted the “second-child” policy in 2015. However, new births in 2022 and 2023 did not see year-on-year growth. It won’t be easy to persuade young couples to agree to the evolving demographic change in the country and embrace more births. More efforts should be made to support the government’s pro-birth push.

As a matter of fact, many couples in China, especially the wives, are increasingly concerned about the costs in time, labor and money for raising a child, which has led them to eye parenthood with reluctance and fear. The concerns are realistic and sensible.

Nowadays, Chinese women are more educated and economically independent than ever, and they even outnumber men in attending higher education programs. Naturally, more women prioritize their careers and self-development opportunities over traditional mileposts such as marriage and childbirth. No one is willing to miss out on promotion opportunities in their golden years of careers.

The authorities ought to factor in the changing social dynamics and the younger generation’s preferences as well as apprehensions about readjusting population policy. In addition to providing childbirth subsidies, the authorities could consider doling out more benefits, such as child-care grants, free schooling, cheaper housing, higher tax incentives and extended parental leave or taking other effective measures that may motivate couples of reproductive age to give birth to more babies.

Some provinces like Sichuan have tried out dropping stern restrictions on unmarried women giving birth, granting single parents access to the benefits previously reserved for married couples, which is also effective in spurring more births.

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