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June 2023

Sustainability of pension schemes. Building a smooth automatic balance mechanism with an application to the US social security

By Frédéric Gannon, Florence Legros & Vincent Touzé We build a “smooth” automatic balancing mecanism (S-ABM) which would result from an optimal tradeoff between increasing the receipts and reducing the expenditures of a pension scheme. The S-ABM obtains from minimizing a sum of discounted quadratic loss function under the constraint of an intertemporal budget balance. One advantage of this model of “optimal” adjustment is its ability to analyse various configurations in terms of ABMs by controlling the adjustment pace. Notably,...

A Complaint Template for Legal Challenges to the Validity of the Statutory ‘Debt Ceiling’

By Robert C. Hockett The Statutory ‘Debt Ceiling’ appearing at 31 USC 3101(b), rooted in the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 aimed at expanding Treasury financing options during the First World War, is not valid in any application that would occasion default on U.S. sovereign debt, other contractual obligations, or Social Security or Veterans’ pension obligations. There are at least seven mutually reinforcing legal grounds for so saying. These include preemption of such application of the Ceiling by the...

May 2023

Pension Reform: Conceptual Foundations and Practical Challenges

By Seamus Duffy & Oliver Giesecke Underfunded pension are the largest liability for state and local governments across the United States. As a result of increasing recognition of the associated risks, recent statutory funding mandates led to a sharp increases in required contributions, threatening city services and employee bases. As funding pressure mounts, pension reforms offer a viable tool for prudent economic policy. We propose five general principles that guide pension reform considerations and discuss how these principle stand in...

‘Earned, Not Given’? The Effect of Lowering the Full Retirement Age on Retirement Decisions

By Mathias Dolls & Carla Krolage This paper analyzes behavioral responses to a 2014 reform in the German public pension system that lowered the full retirement age (FRA) of individuals with a long contribution history by up to two years and framed the new FRA as reference age for retirement. Using administrative data from public pension insurance accounts, we first document a substantial bunching response at the FRA exceeding the control group’s bunching by 83%. Second, we show in a...

“Milliman’s Pension Funding Index. May 2023”

By Milliman The funded status of the nation’s 100 largest corporate defined benefit pension plans decreased by $7 billion during April, as measured by the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI). A decrease in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value pension liabilities led to an increase in these liabilities of $10 billion for the month. As of April 30, the funded ratio fell to 99.5%, from 100.1% at the end of March. April saw the funding surplus...

The Effects of Non-Contributory Pensions on Material and Subjective Well Being

By Rosangela Bando, Sebastian Galiani & Paul Gertler Public expenditures on non-contributory pensions are equivalent to at least 1 percent of GDP in several countries in Latin America and is expected to increase. We explore the effect of non-contributory pensions on the well-being of the beneficiary population by studying the Pension 65 program in Peru, which uses a poverty eligibility threshold. We find that the program reduced the average score of beneficiaries on the Geriatric Depression Scale by nine percent...

April 2023

Incorporating Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Factors into fixed income investment

By The World Bank Group  A growing body of research shows that Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors are material credit risk for fixed income investors. The evidence suggests that incorporating ESG into fixed income investing should be part of the overall credit risk analysis and should contribute to more stable financial returns. Its also dispels the myth that incorporating ESG means having to sacrifice financial returns. ESG investing is increasingly becoming part of the mainstream investment process for fixed income investors, as opposed...

Reforming against the demographic clock

By Allianz Research  The Covid-19 pandemic erased life-expectancy gains of almost a decade, pushing population aging and pension reform into the background. In fact, to alleviate the financial burden on private households and companies, governments not only put together aid packages worth billions of euros that drove up national debt, but also postponed already agreed upon reform measures, lowered contribution rates and allowed early withdrawals from retirement plans. As a result, the build-up of future pension entitlements and retirement savings slowed,...

Priorities for social security Trends, challenges and solutions

By Raúl Ruggia-Frick The International Social Security Association (ISSA) draws its value, strength and dynamism from its global membership, which consists of national institutions that administer the main social security programmes in their countries. This gives the Association a unique and privileged vantage point from which to identify and analyse priority administration and policy challenges in social security, and the many innovative responses and creative solutions to these. The ISSA was looking to the future when it set the priorities of...

March 2023

Pay-as-They-Get-In: Attitudes Towards Migrants and Pension Systems

By Tito Boeri, Matteo Gamalerio, Massimo Morelli & Margherita Negri We study whether a better knowledge of the functioning of pay-as-you-go pension systems and recent demographic trends in the hosting country affects natives' attitudes towards immigration. In two online experiments in Italy and Spain, we randomly treated participants with a video explaining how, in pay-as-you-go pension systems, the payment of current pensions depends on the contributions paid by current workers. The video also explains that the ratio between the number of...