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August 2018

Population Aging, Social Security and Fiscal Limits

By Burkhard Heer (University of Augsburg; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)), Vito Polito (Cardiff Business School) & Michael Wickens (University of Cardiff; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)) We study the sustainability of pension systems using a life-cycle model with distortionary taxation that sets an upper limit to the real value of tax revenues. This limit implies an endogenous threshold dependency ratio, i.e. a point...

A Risk Too Far The Case Against Collective Defined Contribution Pensions

By Michael Johnson Royal Mail has committed to offering its workers a Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) pension scheme, designed to split the difference between existing Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit schemes. The CDC idea is winning increasing support. But it is risky, untested and undermines the personal pensions freedoms introduced in 2015 The system risks creating irreversible intergenerational injustice by overpaying pensioners at the expense of current and future employees. It is also unclear whether what is promised to workers is actually deliverable. Where...

July 2018

Under-Rewarded Efforts. The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico

By Santiago Levy My hope is that this book will appeal to all those interested in Mexico’s development. With that purpose in mind, I tried to write a book with a minimum of specialized language and technical terms, so it could be read by many. I hope academic economists find that the central elements of the narrative are sufficiently supported by empirical evidence, even if not all of them are treated with the technical rigor that they would like to...

Social Protection Goals in East Asia: Strategies and Methods to Generate Fiscal Space

By Mukul G Asher,‎ Fauziah Zen,‎ Astrid Dita The book examines the conceptual, economic, and fiscal impact(s) of the Social Protection Floor (SPF) initiative of the International Labor Organisation (ILO) and other policy influencers by first critically examining the methodologies used by the international agencies to estimate the fiscal costs of designated minimum package(s) of social protection programs. The book also briefly reviews the methodologies used and usefulness of the Social Protection Index (SPI) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Second,...

The Extent and Nature of State and Local Government Pension Problems and a Solution

By Ross Marchand (Taxpayers Protection Alliance) & Mark Warshawsky (Government of the United States of America - Social Security Administration) Some states and municipalities are in difficult financial straits. Many more have severely underfunded defined benefit pension plans for their past and current employees. At the intersection of these two sets, it is likely that the pension plans are not sustainable and cuts are inevitable, including to the benefits of current retirees. But in many of these states and municipalities,...

Financial stability implications of a prolonged period of low interest rates

From  Committee on the Global Financial System The decade following the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) has been marked by historically low interest rates. An environment characterised by "low-for-long" interest rates may dampen the profitability and strength of financial firms and thus become a source of vulnerability for the financial system. In addition, low rates could change firms' incentives to take risks, which could engender additional financial sector vulnerabilities. This report identifies and provides evidence for the channels through which a "low-for-long"...

June 2018

Nigeria and the Development Quagmire: Prospects of Development through Agriculture, Food Security and Agro-Based Industrialization

By Tesky Timothy Agoben (University of Lagos, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology ; Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ikwo) This paper focused on ‘The Prospects of Nigeria’s Development through Agriculture, National Food Security and Agro-Based Industrialization’. To effectively examined how these areas of the agricultural sector can serve as prospects for Nigeria’s development, the role of agriculture in a country’s development were highlighted and it was found out from previous agricultural and developmental journals that, agriculture has the potentials to...

The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves

By Robin M. Greenwood (Harvard Business School) & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen (National Bureau of Economic Research) We document a strong effect of pension and insurance company (P&I) assets on the long end of the yield curve. Using data from 26 countries, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond yields is negatively related to the ratio of pension assets (in funded and private pension and life insurance arrangements) to GDP, suggesting that preferred-habitat demand by the P&I sector for long-dated...

The Effects of Means-Tested, Noncontributory Pensions on Poverty and Well-Being: Evidence from the Chilean Pension Reforms

By Italo Garcia (RAND Corporation) & Andres Otero (Independent) Chile initiated in 1981 a privately managed, individual-account pension system that inspired similar reforms in many Latin American countries, and that has been considered as a possible model for Social Security in the United States. After 30 years in place, the Chilean pension system has been criticized for replicating existing inequalities in labor markets and increasing the risk of old-age poverty; for achieving lower levels of coverage; and for providing low...