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April 2017

Nudge for Good? Choice Defaults and Spillover Effects

By Claus Ghesla, Manuel Grieder & Jan Schmitz (ETH Zurich) Policy makers increasingly use choice defaults to promote 'good' causes by influencing socially relevant decisions in desirable ways, e.g., to increase retirement savings, charitable giving, or pro-environmental choices. Such default nudges are remarkably successful when judged by their effects on the targeted behaviors in isolation. However, there is scant knowledge about possible spillover effects of defaults on subsequent related choices. Theoretically, such behavioral spillover effects could amplify, eliminate or even...

Financial History: Lessons of the Past for Reformers of the Present

By Gerard Caprio Jr. (Williams College) & Dimitri Vittas (World Bank) The environment in which financial institutions operate has changed greatly, but the history of financial development offers important lessons for today. Among the lessons financial history offers: Macroeconomic stability - low inflation and sound public finance - is important for creating the right incentives for banks and for facilitating the development of securities markets. High inflation and large fiscal deficits distort economic behavior in favor of short-term speculative projects and...

March 2017

Future savings and pension challenges need a new system

OUR retirement savings and pension systems face unprecedented pressures. Today’s western societies operate pension systems for lives of three score years and ten and populations with lots of young people and few retirees. Those assumptions no longer apply. Indeed, we’re not even sure when workers in their 20s, 30s, or even 40s can expect to retire or if they will do so at all. Much of the UK’s problems are because the state pension system is unfunded. What’s called our “National Insurance...

Understanding the Determinants of Financial Outcomes and Choices: The Role of Noncognitive Abilities

By Gianpaolo Parise (Bank for International Settlements) & Kim Peijnenburg (Netspar) We explore how financial distress and choices are affected by non cognitive abilities. Our measures stem from research in psychology and economics. In a representative panel of households, we find people in the bottom decile of non cognitive abilities are five times more likely to experience financial distress compared to those in the top decile. (more…)

Personalized Information as a Tool to Improve Pension Savings: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Chile

By Olga Fuentes; Jeanne Lafortune; Julio Riutort; José Tessada Félix Villatoro We randomly offer to workers in Chile personalized versus generalized information about their pension savings and forecasted pension income. Personalized information increased the probability and amounts of voluntary contributions after one year without crowding-out other forms of savings. Personalization appears to be very important: individuals who overestimated their pension at the time of the intervention saved more. Thus, a person’s inability to understand how the pension system affects them...

February 2017

Retirement Spending and Biological Age

By Huang Huaxiong, Moshe A. Milevsky & T. S. Salisbury (York University) Abstract:     We solve a retirement lifecycle model in which the consumer's age does not move in lockstep with calendar time. Instead, biological age increases at a stochastic non-linear rate in chronological age, which one can think of as working with a clock that occasionally moves backwards in time. Our paper is inspired by the growing body of medical literature that has identified biomarkers of aging which --...

Social Security and the Rise in Health Spending

By Kai Zhao (University of Connecticut) Abstract:     In a quantitative model of Social Security with endogenous health, I argue that Social Security increases the aggregate health spending of the economy because it redistributes resources to the elderly whose marginal propensity to spend on health is high. I show by using computational experiments that the expansion of US Social Security can account for over a third of the dramatic rise in US health spending from 1950 to 2000. In addition,...

Savings Externalities in a Second-Best World

By Andrew T. Hayashi (University of Virginia) & Daniel Patrick Murphy (University of Virginia) Abstract:       The debate among legal scholars about individuals’ failure to save enough for retirement happens on a “micro” level. It focuses on the causes and consequences of undersaving from the perspective of individuals and analyzes how legal interventions, such as tax subsidies and nudges, can best address individual saving mistakes. This debate depends on certain assumptions about how the macroeconomy operates. When these assumptions...

Employee Saving and Investment Decisions in Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Survey Evidence from the UK

By Alistair Byrne This paper uses data from a survey of the members of a UK defined contribution pension plan to explore the attitudes and knowledge of employees faced with pension saving and investment decisions. The results are consistent with behavioural economics in that many employees show limited interest in their pension arrangements. Not all members have received advice about their pension, but those who have are more likely to have calculated their savings needs, to have higher levels of...

Savings After Retirement: A Survey

By Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French,& John B. Jones The saving patterns of retired U.S. households pose a challenge to the basic life-cycle model of saving. The observed patterns of out-of-pocket medical expenses, which rise quickly with age and income during retirement, and heterogeneous lifespan risk, can explain a significant portion U.S. savings during retirement. However, more work is needed to disentangle these precautionary saving motives from other motives, such as the desire to leave bequests. An important complementary question...