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February 2017

Older Peoples’ Willingness to Delay Social Security Claiming

By Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell We have designed and fielded an experimental module in the 2014 HRS which seeks to measure older persons’ willingness to voluntarily defer claiming of Social Security benefits. In addition, we evaluate the stated willingness of older individuals to work longer, depending on the Social Security incentives offered to delay claiming their benefits. Our project extends previous work by analyzing the results from our HRS module and comparing findings from other data sources which...

Workplace-Linked Pensions for an Aging Demographic

By Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott Pensions and population aging intersect in two ways. First, demographic change threatens the sustainability of traditional pay-as-you-go social security pensions, leaving workplace-linked pensions with a greater role in retirement provision. Second, as the Baby Boom generation enters retirement, new challenges arise around its retirement support. This chapter reviews some of the implications of population aging for workplace pensions in this new environment, outlines market considerations important for workplace-related pension design for the future,...

Uber Retirement

By Paul Secunda The rise of the gig economy with its part-time, itinerant, independent workers, in conjunction with the employee-centric nature of occupational retirement benefits under ERISA, has led to gig employees largely lacking meaningful retirement benefits. Current proposals to provide portable benefits to gig workers as independent workers or independent contractors are unacceptable because such benefits would not be secured by the fiduciary consumer protections of ERISA. However, two developments with regard to the retirement security of the gig workers...

The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation

By Robert J. Shiller The life-cycle accounts proposal for Social Security reform has been justified by its proponents using a number of different arguments, but these arguments generally involve the assumption of a high likelihood of good returns on the accounts. A simulation is undertaken to estimate the probability distribution of returns in the accounts based on long-term historical experience. U.S. stock market, bond market and money market data 1871-2004 are used for the analysis. Assuming that future returns behave...

Economic integration across Latin America: evidence from labor markets, 1990-2013

By Daniel Lederman & Raymond Robertson Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labor markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labor markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labor market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labor markets within Mexico and...

Understanding the dynamics of labor income inequality in Latin America

By Carlos Rodriguez Castelan, Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva, Nora Lustig & Daniel Valderrama Since the early 2000s, after a long period of wide and persistent gaps, Latin America has experienced a steady decline in income inequality. This paper presents evidence of a trend reversal in labor income inequality, which is considered the main factor behind such a decline in income inequality across the region. The analysis shows that, while labor income inequality increased during the 1990s, with heterogeneous experiences across countries,...

Enforcement capacity and the impact of labor regulation : evidence from the Russian Federation

By Álvaro Gonzalez, Siddharth Sharma & Hari Subhash The impact of business regulations on firms could depend on how the regulations are enforced in practice. Exploiting variation in enforcement capacity across the Russian Federation's administrative regions, this paper examines whether the enforcement of restrictive regulations on hiring and firing workers affects how firms adjust employment during industry upswings and downswings. The analysis finds that the extent to which firms adjust employment upward during industry upswings and downward during downswings is...

Employee Participation, Corporate Governance and the Firm: A Transatlantic View Focused on Occupational Pensions and Co-Determination

By Markus Roth Corporate governance and the theory of the firm are discussed primarily from the shareholders’ perspective. This point of view neglects the tremendous effects of private pensions and of co-determination as well as interdependencies between co-determination, pensions and corporate governance. Since in the private pension world the firm serves as an investment tool, the focus should be shifted from short-term interests to concepts maximising long-term shareholder value. In this context, also moderate forms of co-determination might serve as...

Sharing High Growth across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China

By Zheng Michael Song, Kjetil Storesletten, Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient issues in contemporary China. China’s aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small...

Lessons for an Aging Society: The Political Sustainability of Social Security Systems

By Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta What is the future of social security systems in OECD countries? In our view, the answer belongs to the realm of politics. We evaluate how political constraints shape the social security system in six countries - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US - under population aging. Two main aspects of the aging process are relevant to the analysis. First, the increase in the dependency ratio - the ratio of retirees to...