August 2017

The Macroeconomic Impact of Fertility Changes in an Aging Population

By Neha Bairoliya, Ray Miller (Harvard University) & Akshar Saxena (Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health) We assess the impact of continued low fertility in China, versus a rebound in fertility due to the relaxation of the one child policy, on demographic and macroeconomic outcomes in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We use a rich model of human capital investment, public health insurance, pensions, private savings, and intra-family transfers to support the consumption of young and elderly...

Do Stereotypes About Older Workers Change? Evidence from a Panel Study Among Employers

By Hendrik P. van Dalen (Tilburg University) & Kene Henkens (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute) Background: Stereotypies of older workers and their productive value are believed to contrast with their actual potential. Still, these stereotypes among employers persist. Objective: This article examines whether managers have changed their views on older workers and if so what the driving forces are of these changes. Methods: Using panel data we examine the changes in attitudes among Dutch managers about the productive skills of older workers (50...

How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?

By Leora Friedberg (University of Virginia), Michael Owyang (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Wei Sun (Renmin University of China) & Anthony Webb (Boston College) Compared with prime-age workers, older workers face an easier path out of the labor force if they lose their jobs during a recession. However, premature job exits or earnings losses in the years leading up to retirement may be particularly devastating to retirement savings. The authors analyze the impact of recent business cycles on retirement...

El ahorro en México desde 1960

Durante las últimas décadas el tema del ahorro ha figurado como un punto central en las discusiones académicas y entre los responsables de formular las políticas económicas en diversos países y organismos internacionales. Experiencias internacionales recientes en algunos países contribuyeron a reavivar el debate sobre la importancia que tendría el ahorro para garantizar un crecimiento sostenido. Leer más: AQUÍ

July 2017

Life-Cycle Earnings Curves and Safe Savings Rates

By Derek Tharp (Kansas State University) & Michael E. Kitces (The Kitces Report & Nerd's Eye View) Traditional analyses of recommended savings ratios and safe savings rates (SSRs) typically assume constant real earnings growth throughout the one’s career. However, data on the life-cycle earnings patterns of millions of U.S. workers suggests that earnings growth does not occur at a constant rate that matches inflation. Instead, earnings tend to increase at a decreasing rate during the early years of one’s career...

How Hard Should We Push the Poor to Save for Retirement?

By Andrew G. Biggs (American Enterprise Institute) More than half of U.S. states are working to establish programs what would automatically enrollment in Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) workers who are not offered a retirement plan by their employer. These programs are designed to address a perceived shortfall of retirement saving, particularly among low-wage workers who are less likely to be offered an employer-sponsored plan. But the designers of state-run auto-IRA plans fail to consider three questions: Do the poor need...

Role of Social Security in Explaining the Rate of Saving Disparity: A Historical Study of New Zealand versus Singapore: 1960 – 1993

By Debasis Bandyopadhyay & Vera M. Chung (University of Auckland) This paper provides evidence to argue that the difference in the social security schemes of two countries may help explain the disparity in their saving rates. We examine the argument by limiting our focus to a comparison of New Zealand and Singapore for the period 1960 – 1993. We choose the period to avoid the potential impact of the major restructuring of the New Zealand Superannuation since 1994 toward a...

Policy Reflection: Letter of Credit Usage by Defined Benefit Pension Plans in Canada

By Norma L. Nielson & Peggy L. Hedges (University of Calgary) There is an argument to be made for letting corporations hold off on contributing to their employees’ defined benefit pension plans, as long as there is a guarantee the cash will come eventually. That is the reason that provincial governments began allowing creditworthy companies to instead provide a letter of credit, backed by a Canadian bank, guaranteeing the cash deposit, and secured by the company’s line of credit or...

A Study on the Prospects and Problems of Unorganised Labours in India

By Ravindra B.K. (Alliance University), Pradeep M. D. & T. Ramjani Sab (Srinivas Institute of Management Studies) India comprises 43.7 crore people working with the skill in the residual sector as unorganized labours. Around 24.6 core engage in agriculture, 4.4 crore in construction and remaining people in the manufacturing and service sectors. This sector faces eventual deficiencies in regulations over employment, remuneration pattern, poor employer and employee relationship and casual work culture. Informal sector covers large number of workers from...

Problems and demographic policies in Europe. The Role of Cities

By Gérard-François Dumont (University of Paris 4 Sorbonne) Demographic changes are often unknown because they are part of long-term logics; Yet the future of European societies is in the civil states of its various countries. In the first part, we must first analyze the general demographic changes, in particular with regard to the natural increase in Europe, and then the changes in the geography of the population linked to changes in urbanization. Knowledge of the facts will then allow us...