February 2017

Longevity Risk Management for Life and Variable Annuities: Effectiveness of Static Hedging Using Longevity Bonds and Derivatives

By Michael Sherris & Andrew Ngai For many years the longevity risk of individuals has been underestimated as survival probabilities improved across the developed world. The uncertainty and volatility of future longevity has posed significant risk issues for both individuals and product providers of annuities and pensions. This paper investigates the effectiveness of static hedging strategies for longevity risk management using longevity bonds and derivatives (q-forwards) for the retail products: life annuity, deferred life annuity, indexed life annuity and variable...

Can International Capital Standards Strengthen Banks in Emerging Markets?

By Liliana Rojas-Suarez Who should determine banks’ capital standards: authorities or markets? What is the right definition of core capital: equity only or equity plus subordinated debt? Can the assessment of banks' individual credit risks by external rating agencies be of equal or better quality than the assessments derived from banks' own internal rating systems? These are some of the key financial regulatory issues currently being discussed by analysts in industrial countries, especially in the context of the proposed modification...

What Replacement Rates do Households Actually Experience in Retirement?

By Alicia H. Munnell & Mauricio Soto This paper estimates how much people actually receive in retirement relative to earnings before retirement when all sources of income, including income generated by homeownership, are combined. Previous studies find that middle class people need between 70 and 75 percent of their pre-retirement earnings to maintain their life style once they stop working. The objective of this study is to determine what people are actually receiving in retirement. Regardless of how retirement income and...

Behavioral Portfolio Management

By Thomas Howard Behavioral Portfolio Management (BPM) is presented as a superior way to make investment decisions. Underlying BPM is the dynamic market interplay between Emotional Crowds and Behavioral Data Investors. BPM’s first Basic Principle is that Emotional Crowds dominate the determination of both prices and volatility, with fundamentals playing a small role. The second Basic Principle is that Behavioral Data Investors earn superior returns. I present the evidence supporting these first two Principles. The third Basic Principle is that...

Inside Debt

By Alex Edmans & Qi Liu Existing theories advocate the exclusive use of equity-like instruments in executive compensation. However, recent empirical studies document the prevalence of debt-like instruments such as pensions. This paper justifies the use of debt as efficient compensation. Inside debt is a superior solution to the agency costs of debt than the solvency-contingent bonuses and salaries proposed by prior literature, since its payoff depends not only on the incidence of bankruptcy but also firm value in bankruptcy....

Strategic and Tactical Allocation to Commodities for Retirement Savings Schemes

By Theo Nijman & Adrianus Petrus Swinkels We examine whether the variance risk of investment portfolios of pension schemes investing in traditional asset classes can be reduced by extending the set of traditional investment opportunities with commodities. We investigate the economic and statistical significance of shifts in the strategic (three year), myopic (quarterly), and tactical (quarterly rebalancing) mean-variance frontier for pension schemes with a fixed liability portfolio. We find substantial differences in optimal strategic allocations for pension schemes with nominal...

The German Social Market in the World of Global Finance: Pension Investment Management and the Limits of Consensual Decision Making

By Gordon L. Clark, Daniel Mansfield & Adam Tickell In a previous paper we emphasised the changing national and international accounting standards used to measure net pension liability. Beginning with the implications of this analysis for the financing of German employer-sponsored pensions, in this paper we focus upon the internal management of corporate pension assets and liabilities. Two issues drive the analysis. One has to do with the emerging coalescence of interests joining corporate management and shareholders in relation to the management...

The Rise of Pension Fund Capitalism in Europe: An Unseen Revolution?

By Adam Dixon In recent years European countries have begun to reform their pension systems favouring funded to pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security systems and supporting the creation of more 2nd and 3rd pillar funded retirement schemes. Though funded pensions remain small in most European countries, they are growing significantly and may limit the persistence of strong 'varieties of capitalism' by providing an endogenous source of change to economic organisation and corporate governance. To explore this scenario this article examines recent...

Do a Firm's Equity Returns Reflect the Risk of Its Pension Plan?

By Zvi Bodie, Robert C. Merton & Li Jin This paper examines the empirical question of whether systematic equity risk of US firms as measured by beta from the capital asset pricing model reflects the risk of their pension plans. There are a number of reasons to suspect that it might not. Chief among them is the opaque set of accounting rules used to report pension assets, liabilities, and expenses. Pension plan assets and liabilities are off-balance sheet and are often...

Do a Firm’s Equity Returns Reflect the Risk of Its Pension Plan?

By Zvi Bodie, Robert C. Merton & Li Jin This paper examines the empirical question of whether systematic equity risk of US firms as measured by beta from the capital asset pricing model reflects the risk of their pension plans. There are a number of reasons to suspect that it might not. Chief among them is the opaque set of accounting rules used to report pension assets, liabilities, and expenses. Pension plan assets and liabilities are off-balance sheet and are often...