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April 2021

Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2019-20 Update

By David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns This Special Issue of the Insurance: Mathematics and Economics contains 16 contributions to the academic literature all dealing with longevity risk and capital markets. Draft versions of the papers were presented at Longevity 15: The Fifteenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference that was held in Washington DC on 12-13 September 2019. It was hosted by the Pensions Institute at City, University of London. Longevity risk and related capital market solutions...

Reference Points for Retirement Behavior: Evidence from German Pension Discontinuities

By Arthur Seibold This paper documents and analyzes an important and puzzling stylized fact about retirement behavior: the large concentration of job exits at specific ages. In Germany, almost 30% of workers retire precisely in the month when they reach one of three statutory retirement ages, although there is often no incentive or even a disincentive to retire at these thresholds. To study what can explain the concentration of retirements around statutory ages, I use novel administrative data covering the...

Informal Sector in GDP: A Panel Estimation Method

By Nitesh Kansara, Gopal K. Basak, Pranab Kumar Das Estimation of the activities of the informal sector in an economy poses a serious problem for obtaining a correct estimate of GDP. This happens to be so because of the fact that informal sector activities are not registered. The literature has tried to solve the problem of estimation of the informal sector using the method of latent variables. The standard approach is generally aims to estimate for a single point. The present...

Understanding Social Insurance: Risk and Value Pluralism in the Early British Welfare State

By Rachel Friedman This article seeks to make two contributions to the understanding of social insurance, a central policy tool of the modern welfare state. Focusing on Britain, it locates an important strand of theoretical support for early social insurance programs in antecedent developments in mathematical probability and statistics. While by no means the only source of support for social insurance, it argues that these philosophical developments were among the preconditions for the emergence of welfare policies. In addition, understanding...

March 2021

Public Pensions and Private Savings

By Esteban García-Miralles, Jonathan Leganza How does the provision of public pension benefits impact private savings? We answer this question in the context of a reform in Denmark that altered old-age benefit payouts through a discontinuous increase in pension eligibility ages contingent on birthdate. Using detailed administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we identify the causal effects of the policy, leveraging our setting to study essentially the entire financial portfolio. We document responses over two distinct time horizons. First,...

Do public pensions matter to marriage? Evidence from China

By Hua Chen, Zining Liu, Xiaoxu Yang This article examines the role of public pensions on the marriage market based on China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Firstly, we investigate if the extensive margin of public pensions, i.e., whether to participate in public pensions or not, has a significant effect through Difference-in-Difference (DID). The results indicate that public pensions have a significant effect on marriage for both urban and rural residents, and the gender and income heterogeneity of the...

How Much Taxes Will Retirees Owe on Their Retirement Income?

By Anqi Chen, Alicia H. Munnell To evaluate their retirement resources, households approaching retirement will examine their Social Security statements, defined benefit pensions, defined contribution balances, and other financial assets. However, many households may forget that not all of these resources belong to them; they will need to pay some portion to federal and state government in taxes. It is unclear, however, just how large the tax burden is for the typical retired household and for households with different income...

The Welfare and Labor Market Effects of Mandatory Pension Savings: Evidence from the Israeli Case

By Adi Brender Many studies show that workers make poor decisions about pension savings. Policy responses to these failures include social security retirement arrangements, tax benefits for pension savings and, in some countries, also mandatory private savings towards retirement. This study examines the response of Israeli employees to the introduction of mandatory pension contributions, and the medium-term labor market effects of the arrangement, using a randomly selected panel of 300,000 employees. The first year of the arrangement, when enforcement was...

The PEPP Contribution to the Capital Markets Union (CMU)

By Jorik van Zanden, Hans van Meerten, Andrea Minto The EU has several ‘pension problems, for example ageing, poor portability and the lack of consumer protection. Furthermore, the EU internal market for pensions is not sufficiently developed. This not only prevents, for example, a cost-efficient pension build-up of an employee working abroad, but the differences among national rule also restrict a local pension participant in choosing a pension fund established abroad. All these problems have been recently pointed out in the...

Private Markets, Infrastructure and Venture Capital in the Post-COVID Era: The Pension Perspective

By David Weeks, M. Nicolas J. Firzli This second of a series of seven papers co-authored by M. Nicolas J. Firzli and David Weeks looks at the notions of private markets – PE, VC, private debt and infrastructure – and the "quest for yields" in a low interest rates environment, which where discussed at two recent global conferences organised by the G7 Pensions Summit (G7 P7) and the Singapore Economic Forum (SEF). ESG, impact investing, renewable energy and the notion of...