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April 2021

Rethinking Retirement Savings

By Jason Fernandes, Janelle Orsi In this Commentary, we demonstrate that the rules governing retirement savings have been funneling tens of trillions of dollars into a narrow class of return-maximizing investments, including industries that have been driving inequality and widespread ecological destruction. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), along with its state law analogs, directs trustees to seek the highest risk-adjusted return on plan assets, regardless of the consequences to workers, their communities, and the planet. American...

What Explains Low Old-Age Income? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

By Olivia S. Mitchell, Robert L. Clark, Annamaria Lusardi We examine respondents in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to observe how their financial situations unfolded as they aged. We focus on low income older adults and follow them over time to identify the factors associated with having low income at baseline and thereafter. We find that (a) real income remained relatively stable as individuals approach and enter retirement, and progress through their retirement years, and (b) labor force participation...

ESG, Green Growth and Employee Capitalism: G7 Roadmap for the Fifth Industrial Revolution

By M. Nicolas J. Firzli, David Weeks, Nick Sherry This paper co-authored & edited jointly by M. Nicolas J. Firzli, David Weeks and the Hon. Nicholas Sherry looks at the twin notions of asset ownership and EESG-driven investment in relation to the emerging financial policy agenda of the 47th G7 Summit (Carbis Bay Summit) from the perspective of G7 and Australian pension investors and board members (trustees), which were discussed notably at two recent global conferences organised by the Singapore...

Declining Natural Interest Rate in the US: The Pension System Matters

By Jacopo Bonchi, Giacomo Caracciolo The natural interest rate is the level of the real interest rate compatible with potential output and stable prices. We develop a life-cycle model and calibrate it to the US economy to quantify the role of the public pension scheme for the past and future evolution of the natural interest rate. Between 1970 and 2015, the pension reforms have overall mitigated the secular decline in the natural interest rate, raising it by around one percentage...

Combining Flexible Asset Allocation, Sustainable Withdrawals, and Deferred Annuities to provide an Adaptive Lifelong Investing Solution

By Anran Chen, Steven Haberman, Steve Thomas In this paper, we integrate investment decisions in the post-retirement decumulation period with that of the deferred annuity purchase to provide a lifetime decumulation solution. Based on Monte Carlo simulation and historical experience, we use the Perfect Withdrawal Rate (PWR) as a tool to make recommendations on withdrawal rates and asset allocations for different levels of risk preferences. We have a few potentially important findings. First, we illustrate how cheap it is to...

Financial Inclusion Through Fintech in the Digital Economy

By Eunsook Seo, Kyeong-Won Yoo Since the 2008 global financial crisis, including the recent COVID 19 pandemic, low interest rates and low economic growth have continued around the world. In spite of this low interest rate trend, as the economic downturn prolongs, there is a situation of concern called the “new normal” of low interest rates and low economic growth, and low prices. In this new normal economic structure, the rapid progress of aging is increasing the necessity and desire...

Involuntary unemployment in overlapping generations model due to instability of the economy and fiscal policy

By Yasuhito Tanaka The existence of involuntary unemployment advocated by J. M. Keynes is a very important problem of the modern economic theory. Using a three-generations overlapping generations model, we show that the existence of involuntary unemployment is due to the instability of the economy. Instability of the economy is the instability of the difference equation about the equilibrium price around the full-employment equilibrium, which means that a fall in the nominal wage rate caused by the presence of involuntary...

Do Required Minimum Distribution 401(K) Rules Matter, and for Whom? Insights from a Lifecycle Model

By Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell Tax-qualified vehicles helped U.S. private-sector workers accumulate $25Tr in retirement assets. An often-overlooked important institutional feature shaping decumulations from these retirement plans is the “Required Minimum Distribution” (RMD) regulation, requiring retirees to withdraw a minimum fraction from their retirement accounts or pay excise taxes on withdrawal shortfalls. Our calibrated lifecycle model measures the impact of RMD rules on financial behavior of heterogeneous households during their worklives and retirement. We show that proposed...

Robert C. Merton and the Science of Finance

By Zvi Bodie Starting with his 1970 doctoral dissertation and continuing to today, Robert C. Merton has revolutionized the theory and practice of finance. In 1997 Merton shared a Nobel Prize in Economics “for a new method to determine the value of derivatives.” His contributions to the science of finance, however, go far beyond that. In this essay I describe Merton’s main contributions. They include the following: 1. The introduction of continuous-time stochastic models (the Ito calculus) to the theory...

Population aging and comparative advantage

By Jie Cai, Andrey Stoyanov In this paper we show that demographic differences between countries are a source of comparative advantage in international trade. Since many skills are age-dependent, population aging decreases the relative supply and increases the relative price of skills which depreciate with age. Thus, industries relying on skills in which younger workers are relatively more efficient will be more productive in countries with a younger labor force and less productive in countries with an older population. Building upon the neuroscience and economics...