April 2021
23Apr

Declining Natural Interest Rate in the US: The Pension System Matters

By Jacopo Bonchi, Giacomo Caracciolo The natural interest rate is the level of the real interest rate compatible with potential output and stable prices. We develop a life-cycle model and calibrate it to the US economy to quantify the role of the public pension scheme for the past and future evolution of the natural interest rate. Between 1970 and 2015, the pension reforms have overall mitigated the secular decline in the natural interest rate, raising it by around one percentage...

April 23, 2021
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23Apr

Combining Flexible Asset Allocation, Sustainable Withdrawals, and Deferred Annuities to provide an Adaptive Lifelong Investing Solution

By Anran Chen, Steven Haberman, Steve Thomas In this paper, we integrate investment decisions in the post-retirement decumulation period with that of the deferred annuity purchase to provide a lifetime decumulation solution. Based on Monte Carlo simulation and historical experience, we use the Perfect Withdrawal Rate (PWR) as a tool to make recommendations on withdrawal rates and asset allocations for different levels of risk preferences. We have a few potentially important findings. First, we illustrate how cheap it is to...

April 23, 2021
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15Apr

Financial Inclusion Through Fintech in the Digital Economy

By Eunsook Seo, Kyeong-Won Yoo Since the 2008 global financial crisis, including the recent COVID 19 pandemic, low interest rates and low economic growth have continued around the world. In spite of this low interest rate trend, as the economic downturn prolongs, there is a situation of concern called the “new normal” of low interest rates and low economic growth, and low prices. In this new normal economic structure, the rapid progress of aging is increasing the necessity and desire...

April 15, 2021
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15Apr

Involuntary unemployment in overlapping generations model due to instability of the economy and fiscal policy

By Yasuhito Tanaka The existence of involuntary unemployment advocated by J. M. Keynes is a very important problem of the modern economic theory. Using a three-generations overlapping generations model, we show that the existence of involuntary unemployment is due to the instability of the economy. Instability of the economy is the instability of the difference equation about the equilibrium price around the full-employment equilibrium, which means that a fall in the nominal wage rate caused by the presence of involuntary...

April 15, 2021
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15Apr

Do Required Minimum Distribution 401(K) Rules Matter, and for Whom? Insights from a Lifecycle Model

By Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell Tax-qualified vehicles helped U.S. private-sector workers accumulate $25Tr in retirement assets. An often-overlooked important institutional feature shaping decumulations from these retirement plans is the “Required Minimum Distribution” (RMD) regulation, requiring retirees to withdraw a minimum fraction from their retirement accounts or pay excise taxes on withdrawal shortfalls. Our calibrated lifecycle model measures the impact of RMD rules on financial behavior of heterogeneous households during their worklives and retirement. We show that proposed...

April 15, 2021
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08Apr

Robert C. Merton and the Science of Finance

By Zvi Bodie Starting with his 1970 doctoral dissertation and continuing to today, Robert C. Merton has revolutionized the theory and practice of finance. In 1997 Merton shared a Nobel Prize in Economics “for a new method to determine the value of derivatives.” His contributions to the science of finance, however, go far beyond that. In this essay I describe Merton’s main contributions. They include the following: 1. The introduction of continuous-time stochastic models (the Ito calculus) to the theory...

April 8, 2021
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08Apr

Population aging and comparative advantage

By Jie Cai, Andrey Stoyanov In this paper we show that demographic differences between countries are a source of comparative advantage in international trade. Since many skills are age-dependent, population aging decreases the relative supply and increases the relative price of skills which depreciate with age. Thus, industries relying on skills in which younger workers are relatively more efficient will be more productive in countries with a younger labor force and less productive in countries with an older population. Building upon the neuroscience and economics...

April 8, 2021
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08Apr

Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2019-20 Update

By David P. Blake, Andrew J. G. Cairns This Special Issue of the Insurance: Mathematics and Economics contains 16 contributions to the academic literature all dealing with longevity risk and capital markets. Draft versions of the papers were presented at Longevity 15: The Fifteenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference that was held in Washington DC on 12-13 September 2019. It was hosted by the Pensions Institute at City, University of London. Longevity risk and related capital market solutions...

April 8, 2021
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01Apr

Reference Points for Retirement Behavior: Evidence from German Pension Discontinuities

By Arthur Seibold This paper documents and analyzes an important and puzzling stylized fact about retirement behavior: the large concentration of job exits at specific ages. In Germany, almost 30% of workers retire precisely in the month when they reach one of three statutory retirement ages, although there is often no incentive or even a disincentive to retire at these thresholds. To study what can explain the concentration of retirements around statutory ages, I use novel administrative data covering the...

April 1, 2021
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01Apr

Informal Sector in GDP: A Panel Estimation Method

By Nitesh Kansara, Gopal K. Basak, Pranab Kumar Das Estimation of the activities of the informal sector in an economy poses a serious problem for obtaining a correct estimate of GDP. This happens to be so because of the fact that informal sector activities are not registered. The literature has tried to solve the problem of estimation of the informal sector using the method of latent variables. The standard approach is generally aims to estimate for a single point. The present...

April 1, 2021
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