October 2024
04Oct

Assessing Immigration Impacts in Developing Countries. The Case of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

By Riccardo Magnani & Marie-Claude KAMAR This article analyzes the effects of low-skilled immigration in developing countries characterized by a large informal sector, high unemployment (especially among highly educated people), and low participation of women in the labor force. We use an OLG model to account for the general equilibrium linkages between the immigration shock, the level of wages and employment, the education choice, and the emigration choice made by natives. The model includes search and matching frictions in the...

October 4, 2024
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04Oct

Savings Goals Matter – Cognitive Constraints, Retirement Planning, and Downstream Economic Behaviors

By Zihan Ye, Thomas Post, Xiaopeng Zou & Shenglan Chen We study how cognitive constraints relate to each distinct step of the planning and execution process for retirement, that is, individuals’ propensity to plan, savings goals set, and economic outcomes (wealth accumulation and portfolio choice). We find that different cognitive constraints play distinct roles: Higher advanced financial literacy (and quantitative reasoning ability) predicts a greater propensity to plan, while higher basic financial literacy and verbal cognition predict setting higher savings...

October 4, 2024
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September 2024
27Sep

Revisiting Sample Bias in the Uk’s Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, with Implications for Estimates of Low Pay and the Bite of the National Living Wage

By John Forth, Alex Bryson,Van Phan, Felix Ritchie, Carl Singleton, Lucy Stokes & Damian Whittard The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) is based on an annual one per cent sample of employee jobs and provides many of the UK's official earnings statistics. These statistics are generated using official weights designed to make the achieved sample in each year representative of the population of employee jobs in Britain by gender, age, occupation, and region. However, we find that jobs...

September 27, 2024
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27Sep

Self-Control Preferences and Pension Means Testing

By Daniel Wheadon, Gonzalo Castex, George Kudrna & Alan D. Woodland We investigate the effects of self-control preferences on household life cycle decisions, macroeconomic outcomes, and the roles they play in determining optimal means testing of public old-age pensions. To that end, we develop a stochastic overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households that have Gul-Pesendorfer self-control preferences. First, we show that in economies with higher self-control costs lifetime savings diminish, while labor supply and retirement are postponed to later ages....

September 27, 2024
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27Sep

The Future of Retirement Security An International Comparison through the Lens of Adequacy, Sustainability, Equity and Plan Design

By Surya Kolluri, Catherine Reilly & David P. Richardson Countries around the world are considering and implementing reforms to their retirement systems for a variety of reasons, including increasing demographic and economic pressures. A key demographic driver is human longevity. For example, the average retiree can expect to spend about two decades in retirement, roughly double the time from 50 years ago. In the United States, life expectancy has risen by 17 years since the Social Security program debuted nearly...

September 27, 2024
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20Sep

Optimising Bangladesh’s Universal Pension Framework: From Lessons to Actions

By Samiha Chowdhury Social protection for the elderly, in the form of the Old-age Allowance (OAA) Programme, has been operational in Bangladesh since 1998, offering monthly financial support to senior citizens from poor and vulnerable households. As of FY24, the programme has approximately 5.8 million elderly people as beneficiaries, each receiving Tk.600 per month distributed on a quarterly basis. Apart from this, retirement benefits for the government employees and their families can also be considered a social protection programme for...

September 20, 2024
Articles, Pension design, , ,
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20Sep

The Rise of Alternatives

By Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang & Emil Siriwardane Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by the mean-variance models used by most pensions. Our evidence suggests that the rise of alternatives has been fueled by an increase in their perceived risk-adjusted returns relative to public equities. Pension beliefs are shaped...

September 20, 2024
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20Sep

When the Abundance Ends: Economic Transformation, Population Aging, and Shrinking Lifecycle Surplus in China

By Feng Wang, Ke Shen & Yong Cai China’s age of abundance, driven by rapid increases in labor income and a favorable population age profile, led to a sizable surplus at the society level. Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) approach, this study updates results published in this journal a decade ago. It traces changes in labor income and consumption patterns in China in the 2010s, and compares them with those in the decade prior. Our results report significant shifts...

September 20, 2024
Aging, Articles, , ,
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13Sep

Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice

By Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg & Michael S. O'Doherty We challenge two central tenets of lifecycle investing: (i) investors should diversify across stocks and bonds and (ii) the young should hold more stocks than the old. An even mix of 50% domestic stocks and 50% international stocks held throughout one’s lifetime vastly outperforms age-based, stock-bond strategies in building wealth, supporting retirement consumption, preserving capital, and generating bequests. These findings are based on a lifecycle model that features dynamic processes for...

September 13, 2024
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13Sep

Pensioners Without Borders: Agglomeration and the Migration Response to Taxation

By Salla Kalin, Antoine Levy & Mathilde Munoz  This paper investigates whether and why pensioners move across borders in response to tax rate differentials. In 2013, retirees relocating to Portugal became eligible to a full tax exemption of foreign-source pensions. Contrary to the broadly held belief that seniors "age in place", we find substantial international mobility responses to the reform, concentrated among wealthy and educated pensioners in higher-tax origin countries. The implied migration elasticity of the stock of foreign pensioners...

September 13, 2024
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