November 2022

Older Persons’ Rights to Social Security

By Alan Gutterman Article 22 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights provides that “[e]veryone, as a member of society, has the right to social security”, and Article 9 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (“ICESCR”) calls on States to “recognize the right of everyone to social security, including social insurance”. In its General Comment No. 19 on the right to social security released in 2008, the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (“CESCR”) explained...

Risk Pooling and Precautionary Saving in Village Economies

By Marcel Fafchamps & Aditya Shrinivas We propose a new method to test for efficient risk pooling that allows for intertemporal smoothing, non-homothetic consumption, and heterogeneous risk and time preferences. The method is composed of three steps. The first one allows for precautionary savings by the aggregate risk pooling group. The second utilizes the inverse Engel curve to estimate good-specific tests for efficient risk pooling. In the third step, we obtain consistent estimates of households' risk and time preferences using...

Trends in State and Local Pension Funds

By Oliver Giesecke & Joshua D. Rauh Unfunded public pension obligations represent the largest liability for state and local governments in the United States. As of fiscal year 2021, the total reported unfunded liabilities of these plans is $1.076 trillion. In contrast, the market value of the unfunded liability is approximately $6.501 trillion. As a result, the reported funding ratio of 82.5% falls to 43.8% under a market-based valuation. The market values reflect the fact that accrued pension promises are...

October 2022

Optimal Savings and Portfolio Choice with Risky Labor Income and Reference-Dependent Preferences 

By Servaas van Bilsen, Roger J. A. Laeven & Theo Nijman This paper explores the joint impact of reference-dependent preferences and non- tradable risky labor income on optimal savings and portfolio decisions. We develop a non-trivial solution procedure to determine the optimal policies. Our results reveal that the impact of permanent labor income shocks on both the optimal savings rate and the optimal portfolio share is more pronounced under reference- dependent preferences than under CRRA preferences. In particular, we find...

Intergenerational Solidarity

By Alan Gutterman Aging is a natural progression of the life cycle and society will always have persons of different ages who need to learn to live alongside one another. One of the most consistent themes in the debate regarding the realization of the human rights of older persons is the need to strengthen “intergenerational solidarity” between and among all levels of families, communities and nations in order to achieve social cohesion and a society for all ages and build...

Discounting and the Market Valuation of Defined Benefit Pensions

By luca larcher & Francis Breedon We investigate how defined benefit pension schemes of FTSE firms are valued by the equity market, focusing on how future liabilities are discounted (since UK data allows us to estimate the duration of pension liabilities fairly accurately). We find that equity market valuation is consistent with discounting without allowing for credit risk. This differs from the approach used in published accounts for which IAS 19 (and SFAS No. 158, its US equivalent) allows for...

Individual Investors’ Housing Income and Interest Rates Fluctuations

By Antonio Gargano & Marco Giacoletti Little is known about the participation of small individual landlords in the rental market, and about rental income earned by households. Using unique tax filings data from Australia, we show that 20% of middle and retirement age median-income individuals are landlords. This fraction has risen over the last 20 years, increasing by 80% for the retirement age group. We provide evidence linking this change to cuts in interest rates, which have led older individuals...

Older Workers’ Employment and Social Security Spillovers through the Second Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

By Gopi Shah Goda, Emilie Jackson, Lauren Hersch Nicholas & Sarah Stith The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a large and immediate drop in employment among US workers, along with major expansions of unemployment insurance and work from home. We use Current Population Survey and Social Security application data to study employment among older adults and their participation in disability and retirement insurance programs through the second year of the pandemic. We find ongoing improvements in employment outcomes among older workers in...

The politics and economics of pension privatization in latin america

By Raúl Madrir This research note seeks to explain 'lvhya large nUl11ber of Latin Atnerican countries have privatized their pension systel11s in recent years. It argues that the privatization schelnes are a response to the severe capital shortages that have plagued their countries intennittently in recent years rather than to the financial problelns facing son1e of the pension systelns. The likelihood of pension privatization, 1 argue, is determined in large part by the vulnerability of countries to capital shortages as...

Bounded Rationality and Optimal Retirement Age

By Hyeon Park This paper explores a lifecycle model of labor supply and endogenous retirement behavior for households whose planning window is truncated and who will reoptimize as extra information on productivity is revealed over time. This short horizon model internalizes the restriction on rationality for temporal resource allocation and the labor supply is closely dependent on the degree of productivity changes in view. With the model, the endogenous retirement timing---the moment at which the marginal utility from the intended...