Customize Consent Preferences

We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below.

The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site. ... 

Always Active

Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site, such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data.

No cookies to display.

Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collecting feedback, and other third-party features.

No cookies to display.

Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.

No cookies to display.

Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.

No cookies to display.

Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns.

No cookies to display.

September 2023

Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?

By Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom  This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950–2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020–2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout...

Eggs and Baskets: Lifecycle Portfolio Dynamics

By Loretti Dobrescu, Akshay Shanker, Hazel Bateman, Ben Rhodri Newell & Susan Thorp  Housing and pension wealth are two major contributors to the quality of old-age provision. Here we study the interplay between these two asset classes using the impact of changes in saving incentives on wealth accumulation across the lifetime. To do so, we build and estimate a dynamic lifecycle model of saving and portfolio choice featuring risky earnings, lumpy housing with collateralized borrowing, and financial assets inside and...

Motivated Saving: The Impact of Projections on Retirement Contributions

By George Smyrnis, Hazel Bateman, Loretti Dobrescu, Ben R. Newell & Susan Thorp Projections of future benefits can assist pension plan participants prepare for retirement. Here we measure the effects of projections of retirement incomes and lump sum balances on voluntary contributions and plan interactions of retirement savers. Data from a two-year field trial in a large Australian pension plan show that the frequency and average amount of participants’ voluntary contributions and interactions with the plan rose significantly in the...

Welfare Analysis of Housing in the Presence of Interest Rate Risk

By Servaas van Bilsen, Theo Nijman & Emiliana van Erk  We model the welfare losses of (i) the presence of a mortgage with required repayments, (ii) a minimum pension savings constraint, and (iii) imposing a suboptimal investment strategy. We develop a life-cycle model which considers housing and interest rate risk. For a reasonable set of parameter values, we find welfare losses of up to 2.41% (5.02%) if a homeowner with a 30-year fixed-rate (adjustable-rate) mortgage faces a minimum savings constraint of...

Risk Aversion and Savings Behavior

By Antoine Bommier, Francois Le Grand & Lionel Wilner This paper investigates the relationship between lifetime savings and risk aversion. First, we take a theoretical approach in a two-period framework with a very general non-parametric model. We show that risk aversion reduces savings in the presence of mortality risk. We then verify the negative impact of risk aversion on savings in a numerical exercise, with a multi-period setting where mortality risk is calibrated on actual demographic life-tables. Finally, we check...

Solving the Puzzle within the Annuity Puzzle: Incorporating Irrevocability Aversion into Annuity Choice

By Spencer Look, Tao Guo & Yuanshan Cheng  Researchers have found that annuities provide substantial benefits to retirement investors. Income annuities, which require the purchaser to irrevocably exchange an insurance premium for future income, are typically considered the most efficient vehicle to generate lifetime income. However, the Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association (“LIMRA”) estimated that the actual sales of income annuities only accounted for 12% of income-focused annuity sales (LIMRA, 2022a). Most of the sales are attributable to deferred...

Policy Forum: Pensions, Retirement Incentives, and the Role of Inflation

By Tammy Schirle This article describes the role of wage and price inflation for the retirement plans and well-being of registered pension plan members. The federal Public Service Pension Plan is used as an example to illustrate how wage and price inflation can be accounted for in pension design. Alternative scenarios illustrate the importance of pension plan provisions for the standard of living afforded retirees as well as incentives to delay retirement and continue working at older ages. Source @SSRN

The Labor Market Effects of Facilitating Social Security Contributions Under Part-Time Employment Contracts: Evidence from Colombia

By Brenda Samaniego de la Parra, Andrea Otero-Cortés & Leonardo Morales  We examine the impact of reducing rigidities caused by regulation on labor demand in a context with high informality. Using employer–employee matched administrative records and household survey data, we estimate the effects of a reform that eliminated a wedge in firms' regulatory costs of employing workers on different work schedules in Colombia, reducing the relative costs of formal parttime employment. We find that the reform increased the probability of entering...

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Longevity Perceptions and Implications for Financial Decision-Making

By Abigail Hurwitz, Olivia S. Mitchell & Orly Sade  Inaccurate perceptions regarding life expectancy can lead to suboptimal financial decisions with long-term consequences, including undersaving prior to retirement, and overspending during retirement. As prior research suggests that Covid-19 mortality has disproportionately harmed those with low incomes, African Americans, and Hispanics in the United States, we seek to determine whether subjective survival perceptions among these groups changed in a manner consistent with observed outcomes. We fielded two online experimental surveys of...

Contingency Fund: Individual Retiree Risk Management

By Jason Branning & Ray Grubbs  The goal of this article is to provide an actionable framework for contingency planning for individual retirees through the modern retirement theory (MRT) perspective. Contingency planning encompasses a retiree’s risk management processes, techniques, and strategies, along with a choice architecture. Our goal is to provide insights that are mitigating to those conditions within longevity that can impair or impact a retiree’s ability to remain retired. We offer three risk categories—known, unknown, and unknowable—as an...