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November 2023

The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Services and Economic Development

By Hongyu Fang With the increasing aging population, it has had a profound impact on the financial services industry and economy. This study aims to explore the effect of population aging on the financial service industry and economy and propose corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The aging population has brought challenges to the financial services industry. The increase in the elderly population has led to a rise in demand for financial products and services. Financial institutions innovate and develop financial products...

October 2023

From PEPP to Corona: European Aspects of the Dutch Pension System

By Hans van Meerten In this contribution, I will address some salient points in the Dutch and European pension landscape. For instance, the state of affairs anno 2023 regarding the WTP and the 'EU Pension Union' (EPU) will be addressed. What developments are there and do they actually bring the signalled EPU (in 2015) closer or further away? In doing so, I would like to address two topics specifically: the internal market for pensions and developments regarding the Corona pandemic,...

Time Consistency in Optimal Retirement Planning

By Frank Bosserhoff, An Chen & Manuel Rach We study time consistency in optimal consumption problems of annuities and tontines. We find the annuity problem to be time-consistent, hence delivering the same optimal consumption at each time. The tontine problem, however, is found to be time-inconsistent, opening the possibility for individuals to increase or decrease their overall expected utility by changing the ex ante fixed consumption profile. However, such an increase in the utility of the tontine cannot lead to...

Determinants of Portfolio ESG Performance: An Attribution Framework

By James J. Li We develop a parsimonious attribution framework for evaluating the ESG performance of a portfolio. Our attribution model decomposes portfolio ESG performance into three principal components: a value effect, a weighting effect, and an interaction effect. We illustrate our approach using the equity portfolios of U.S. public pension funds over time. We find that U.S. public pensions’ positive ESG performance over the past decade is mainly due to their underlying holdings boosting their ESG scores over this...

Preparing for an Aging Africa: Data-Driven Priorities for Economic Research and Policy

By Madeline E. Duhon, Edward Miguel, Amos Njuguna, Daniela Pinto Veizaga & Michael W. Walker The over-60 population in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades, tripling between 2020 and 2050. Despite this explosive projected growth, few countries in the region have implemented policies designed to support older populations. Further, little research in economics has specifically examined aging in Sub-Saharan Africa, though many opportunities exist for economists to generate research evidence to inform the design of...

Understanding Financial Vulnerability Among Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics in the United States

By Andrea Hasler, Annamaria Lusardi, Olivia S. Mitchell & Alessia Sconti The COVID-19 crisis has brought to light the deeply rooted financial struggles that many people face in America, and it also exacerbated racial inequality. In particular, minority communities have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic in many ways, making them ideal targets for efforts to promote financial well-being. This paper examines the financial vulnerability of Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics in the United States, along with potential drivers, using data...

Artificial Intelligence Policy: A Primer and Roadmap

By Ryan Calo Talk of artificial intelligence is everywhere. People marvel at the capacity of machines to translate any language and master any game. Others condemn the use of secret algorithms to sentence criminal defendants or recoil at the prospect of machines gunning for blue, pink, and white-collar jobs. Some worry aloud that artificial intelligence will be humankind’s “final invention.” This essay, prepared in connection with UC Davis Law Review's 50th anniversary symposium, explains why AI is suddenly on everyone's mind and...

Understanding Trends in Hispanic and African American Retirement Preparedness in the US

By Edward Nathan Wolff  Retirement income security refers to households’ ability to provide an adequate income stream during the period of their retirement from the labor force. Expected retirement income is based on four components: standard wealth holdings, defined contribution pensions, defined benefit pensions, and social security benefits. Using the Survey of Consumer Finances, I find that Black and Hispanic households made remarkable progress in terms of retirement income, poverty reduction, and replacement rates over 1989-2007. This was followed by...

The Role of Disability Insurance on the Labour Market Trajectories of Europeans

By Agar Brugiavini & Petru Crudu  This work documents the role played by disability insurance, typically part of a wider public pension provision package, on the labour market trajectories and retirement decisions. We will first employ a machine learning approach to estimate a Transition Probability Model able to uncover the most likely labour market histories and then evaluate the effects of policy reforms, including reforms to the eligibility for disability insurance benefits. The main contribution is the introduction of disability...

Replacement Rates and the Retirement Crisis

By Andrew G. Biggs  In 2014, the annual Social Security Trustees Report removed measures of Social Security replacement rates, which represent Social Security retirement benefits as a percentage of pre-retirement earnings. The Trustees expressed concerns that the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) actuaries’ methodology produced results that differed meaningfully from other common approaches. In 2023, the Social Security Trustees returned replacement rates to the report, without changes to the SSA methodology or discussion of their decision. The SSA replacement rate methodology produces...