February 2017

Do a Firm’s Equity Returns Reflect the Risk of Its Pension Plan?

By Zvi Bodie, Robert C. Merton & Li Jin This paper examines the empirical question of whether systematic equity risk of US firms as measured by beta from the capital asset pricing model reflects the risk of their pension plans. There are a number of reasons to suspect that it might not. Chief among them is the opaque set of accounting rules used to report pension assets, liabilities, and expenses. Pension plan assets and liabilities are off-balance sheet and are often...

Sharing High Growth across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China

By Zheng Michael Song, Kjetil Storesletten, Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient issues in contemporary China. China’s aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small...

Lessons for an Aging Society: The Political Sustainability of Social Security Systems

By Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta What is the future of social security systems in OECD countries? In our view, the answer belongs to the realm of politics. We evaluate how political constraints shape the social security system in six countries - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US - under population aging. Two main aspects of the aging process are relevant to the analysis. First, the increase in the dependency ratio - the ratio of retirees to...

The Embedded Firm: Corporate Governance, Labor, and Finance Capitalism

By Peer C. Zumbansen & Cynthia A. Williams This paper constitutes the introduction to an edited collection, THE EMBEDDED FIRM: LABOR, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND FINANCE CAPITALISM (Cambridge University Press, 2011). This book brings together contributions from law, economics, sociology and politics in order to evaluate the effects of the shift to shareholder primacy in both the United States and the United Kingdom, in the context of an increasingly financialized economy. Contributors include Ruth Aguilera, William Allen, Harry Arthurs, Blanaid Clark,...

The FinTech Opportunity

By Thomas Philippon This paper assesses the potential impact of FinTech on the finance industry, focusing on financial stability and access to services. I document first that financial services remain surprisingly expensive, which explains the emergence of new entrants. I then argue that the current regulatory approach is subject to significant political economy and coordination costs, and therefore unlikely to deliver much structural change. FinTech, on the other hand, can bring deep changes but is likely to create significant regulatory...

Putting the Pension Back in 401(k) Plans: Optimal versus Default Longevity Income Annuities

By Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell Most defined contribution pension plans pay benefits as lump sums, yet the US Treasury has recently encouraged firms to protect retirees from outliving their assets by converting a portion of their plan balances into longevity income annuities (LIA). These are deferred annuities which initiate payouts not later than age 85 and continue for life, and they provide an effective way to hedge systematic (individual) longevity risk for a relatively low price. Using...

Pension Coverage in Kenya: Legal and Policy Framework Required to Enhance Pension Coverage in Kenya

By Nyakundi B. D. Kenya's pension system is fragmented and covers only 15% of the labor force. The enactment of the Retirement Benefits Act in 1997 has not in any significant way impacted on the widening coverage of the pension system. The problem of low coverage is attributable to lack of an effective policy aimed at widening of coverage and the current legal framework which was designed to target participation of formal workers. This paper argues that wide ranging policy...

Simplifying Choices in Defined Contribution Retirement Plan Design

By Donald Keim & Olivia S. Mitchell In view of the growth and popularity of defined contribution pensions, along with the government’s growing attention to retirement plan costs and investment choices provided, it is important to understand how people select their retirement plan investments. This paper shows how employees in a large firm altered their fund allocations when the employer streamlined its pension fund menu and deleted nearly half of the offered funds. Using administrative data, we examine the changes...

Funding Public Pension Plans

By Jonathan Barry Forman Most state and local government employees are covered by traditional final-average-pay pension plans. State and local government employers typically fund those pension plans through a combination of employer and employee contributions, with help from investment returns on already-accumulated assets. Unlike private sector pension plans, however, public pension plans are not subject to strict minimum funding standards like those in the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA). Public pensions also face more flexible accounting standards...

Poverty, Inequality, and Social Policy in Transition Economies

By Branko Milanovic What happens to poverty and income inequality during the early period of transition to a market economy? Poverty is on the rise, and income inequality widens. Better targeting of social assistance and pension reform are the necessary policy reforms. In examining what happens to poverty and income inequality during the early period of transition to a market economy, Milanovic covers the period up to 1993. His analysis includes almost all transition economies that were not affected by...