January 2022

Is Demand for Older Workers Adjusting to an Aging Labor Force?

By Damir Cosic & C. Eugene Steuerle This paper analyzes the demand for older workers, their substitutability with younger workers, and how well the demand for older workers tracks changes in the age composition of the labor force. The main data source for the analysis is the Quarterly Workforce Indicators from 2000 to 2018, which provides earnings and employment by sector and metropolitan statistical area. The analysis also uses KLEMS national data to estimate the sector-specific price and quantity of...

Demographics Unravelled: How Demographics Affect and Influence Every Aspect of Economics, Finance and Policy

By Amlan Roy In Demographics Unravelled, renowned Macro-Demographics expert Amlan Roy delivers an insightful and timely exploration of the impact that “people characteristics” have on national economies. Considering factors like gender, race, migrant status, family background, and education, the author delves deeply into a subject that drives market behavior and economic variables, including growth, debt, inflation, employment, and productivity. These have national and international policy implications. In this one-of-a-kind book, you’ll discover: Why the study of demographics is the hidden key...

December 2021

Aging, Retirement and Economic Growth

By Chao Ma & Xiangbo Liu This paper aims at examining the effects of an increase in life expectancy on long-run growth boosted through endogenous human capital accumulation. We first justify the negative growth effects of population aging by developing a three-period overlapping generation (OLG) model with private and public education systems and a social security scheme of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) nature. In our model, government expenditure structure is allowed to adapt to demographic shifts for the purpose of maintaining...

Understanding and Forecasting Demographic Risk and Benefits

By David Bohl, Barry Hughes & Shelby Johnson There is a global demographic transition underway—mortality rates and fertility rates are declining in almost every country. Different countries are at different stages of this demographic transition, generally corresponding to their level of economic development, and progressing at different speeds. Declining mortality and fertility, along with migration, determine the changing age structures of countries. There are macro-economic, financial, and social burdens and benefits associated with different age structures. Since demographics is largely...

Elderly Poverty and its Measurement

By Yoko Niimi & Charles Yuji Horioka This paper examines various aspects of elderly poverty and its measurement. It first discusses some of the most important issues relating to measuring elderly poverty. It then reviews recent trends in elderly poverty, which show considerable heterogeneity in the extent of elderly poverty even among developed countries. Such cross-country differences are due at least partly to differences in the generosity of public old-age pensions and other social safety nets for the elderly. Empirical...

November 2021

Population Aging and Worklife Duration: Myths and Realities in the Canadian Context

By Gilbert M., Yves Carrière & Marcel Mérette Population ageing is raising concerns about labour shortage and public finance sustainability, on the assumption that increased age-based dependency ratio is a synonym of shrinking working lifespan for financing expanding lifespan consumption. However, such assumptions usually omit an appropriate account of changing labour force participation and hours worked (behavioural components) which could be playing toward or against the tides of populating ageing (structural components). This paper estimates worklife duration in Canada between...

Preventing Reforming Unequally

By Axel H. Boersch-Supan, Klaus Härtl, Duarte Nuno Leite & Alexander Ludwig Population aging has forced policy makers in most developed countries to reform pension systems with the aim to maintain or re-establish financial sustainability. This usually involves cost-cutting measures like later pension eligibility ages and lower replacement rates. Such reforms face harsh trade-offs with the objective of providing adequate pensions. Social welfare and inequality have emerged as crucial concerns about recent pension reforms, stressing that the lack of 'social...

COP26 Special Report on Climate Change and Health

By World Health Organization The 10 recommendations in the COP26 Special Report on Climate Change and Health propose a set of priority actions from the global health community to governments and policy makers, calling on them to act with urgency on the current climate and health crises. The recommendations were developed in consultation with over 150 organizations and 400 experts and health professionals. They are intended to inform governments and other stakeholders ahead of the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26)...

The Rising Age of Retirement and Life Expectancy

For many people retirement is something to look forward to, with it being a new stage to life with no work and endless opportunities. Our Life Plan has predicted how old individuals will be when they retire up to 29 years into the future. They have looked into the rising age of retirement across 36 OECD countries, revealing that some workers can expect to be 82 when they retire. The team has also predicted how long these individuals can expect to...

The Skill-Specific Automatability of Aging Workers and Retirement Decisions

By Zeewan Lee Much of the discourse on the impact of automation on labor supply tends to assess the labor force as a whole, thereby disregarding the marginal effect on aging workers. In lights of the growing technological changes, we assess the linkage between the automatability of workers and retirement timing. Based on the theoretical model of task-based technological changes and drawing data from the Health and Retirement Study and O*NET, we create an Automatability Index based on workers’ primary...