April 2018

Political Preferences and the Aging of Populations: Political-economy Explanations of Pension Reform

By Oliver Pamp Oliver Pamp analyzes the likelihood and extent of pension reforms from a political-economy perspective. It is shown that voters’ preferences for or against reforms are influenced by a societies’ demographic development, the generosity of its existing public pension scheme and its electoral system. The author extensively reviews existing formal models of pension systems, discusses their merits and limitations, and develops a three-period overlapping generations model. The model’s insights regarding individual reform preferences are then put into the...

March 2018

The Mortality Effects of Retirement: Evidence from Social Security Eligibility at Age 62

By Maria D. Fitzpatrick, Timothy J. Moore Social Security eligibility begins at age 62, and approximately one third of Americans immediately claim at that age. We examine whether age 62 is associated with a discontinuous change in aggregate mortality, a key measure of population health. Using mortality data that covers the entire U.S. population and includes exact dates of birth and death, we document a robust two percent increase in male mortality immediately after age 62. The change in female...

Social Security Claiming Decisions: Survey Evidence

By John B. Shoven, Sita Nataraj Slavov & David A. Wise While research shows that there are large gains in lifetime wealth from delaying claiming Social Security, most people claim at or before full retirement age. We fielded an original, nationally representative survey to gain insight into people’s rationales for their Social Security claiming decisions, their satisfaction with their past claiming decisions, and how they financed any gap between retirement and claiming. Common rationales for claiming Social Security before full...

Causes and Characteristics of Population Aging

By Kyounghoon Park (The Bank of Korea) Korea’s level of population aging remains lower than the OECD average. However, the pace of population aging in Korea is faster than that of many other member countries, as its total fertility rate is the lowest among OECD countries while its life expectancy exceeds the OECD average. Using panel data from OECD member countries, this paper divides the common causes of population aging in OECD countries into declining fertility rate and increasing life...

Old-age Labor Force Participation in Germany: What Explains the Trend Reversal among Older Men? And What the Steady Increase among Women?

By Axel Börsch-Supan, Irene Ferrari The aim of this paper is to illustrate for Germany the factors that may explain the U-shaped pattern of older men’s labor force participation - from a long declining trend that began in the early 1970s to an increasing trend starting from the late 1990s - and at the same time the steady increase in older women’s labor force participation. In a first step, we provide graphical evidence of the trends of various variables which...

How Persistent Low Expected Returns Alter Optimal Life Cycle Saving, Investment, and Retirement Behavior

By Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell This paper explores how an environment of persistent low returns influences saving, investing, and retirement behaviors, as compared to what in the past had been thought of as more “normal” financial conditions. Our calibrated lifecycle dynamic model with realistic tax, minimum distribution, and Social Security benefit rules produces results that agree with observed saving, work, and claiming age behavior of U.S. households. In particular, our model generates a large peak at...

February 2018

Building Evidence for Active Ageing Policies: Active Ageing Index and its Potential

By Asghar Zaidi,‎ Sarah Harper,‎ Kenneth Howse,‎ Giovanni Lamura,‎ Jolanta Perek-Bialas  This book provides multinational evidence on active and healthy ageing. It generates authoritative new knowledge for mutual learning and policymaking in addressing challenges linked with population ageing. The authors discuss how to achieve better active ageing outcomes through appropriate policies including addressing life course determinants of active and healthy ageing. The chapters are distinctive in their focus on quantitative analysis of active and healthy ageing based on a first-of-its-kind composite measure, the Active Ageing...

Exploring the Risks and Consequences of Elder Fraud Victimization: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

By Marguerite DeLiema (Stanford University - Stanford Center on Longevity), Martha Deevy (Stanford University - Stanford Center on Longevity), Annamaria Lusardi (George Washington University - Department of Accountancy; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)) & Olivia S. Mitchell (University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)) This is the first study to use longitudinal data to explore both the antecedents and consequences of fraud victimization in the older population. Because older persons are close to...

The Impact of Life-Course Developments on Pensions in the Ndc Systems in Poland, Italy and Sweden and Point System in Germany

By Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak (Warsaw School of Economics), Marek Góra (Warsaw School of Economics (SGH); IZA Institute of Labor Economics), Irena Kotowska (Warsaw School of Economics), Iga Magda (Warsaw School of Economics), Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska (Warsaw School of Economics) & Pawel Strzelecki (National Bank of Poland; Warsaw School of Economics) Old-age pensions in the NDC systems reflect the accumulated lifetime labour income. Interrupted careers and differences in the employment rates, particularly between men and women will have a significant impact on...

Political Viability of Intergenerational Transfers. An Empirical Application

By Gianko Michailidis (University of Barcelona) & Concepcio Patxot (University of Barcelona - Department of Economic Theory) Public intergenerational transfers (IGTs) may arise because of the failure of private arrangements to provide optimal economic resources for the young and the old. We examine the political sustainability of the system of public IGTs by asking what the outcome would be if the decision per se to reallocate economic resources between generations was put to the vote. By exploiting the particular nature...