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February 2017

Market risk analysis for Mexico´s pension funds: an autoregressive approach

By Marissa Martínez and Francisco Venegas The aim of this paper is to analyze the market risk of two types of investment funds, Basic SIEFORE 1 (SB1) and Basic SIEFORE 2 (SB2). To do this, we propose a performance index that will be used in ARIMA-GARCH models and some of its extensions, with the purpose of examining the dynamic behavior of the returns and their volatility on such investment funds. Moreover, the risk premium of both types of funds is...

Social security, pensions and old age adults’ poverty in Mexico.

By Araceli Damián After discussing the role of pension systems in capitalism as instruments of redistribution of income between capital and labor and, therefore, of the class struggle, it is recounted how, in a context of a fragmented and inconclusive Welfare State, pension systems emerged in Mexico, and recent reforms to pension systems are analyzed, showing their impact in the reduction of benefits. Lastly, the poverty of the population of retirement age is analyzed in relation to their access to...

Pensions in Mexico A Long-Term Risk

By Victor M. Soria With the coming of economic globalization, over the last two decades, pre-existing problems in pension systems in practically all the countries of the world have sharpened. On the one hand, with increased life expectancy, the population pyramid now contains a larger number of retired persons and people ofretirement age; the increase in unemployment has lowered the number of contributors to social security systems; and on the other hand, financial liberalization and the economic adjustments brought by globalization...

Dilemas de la protección social frente a la desaceleración económica

Esta publicación presenta una reflexión respecto de los desafíos de los sistemas de protección social en el Cono Sur frente a las nuevas condiciones tanto del contexto macroeconómico como del mercado laboral. El análisis incluye la situación en Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. (more…)

Do Savings Increase in Response to Salient Information about Retirement and Expected Pensions?

By Mathias Dolls, Philipp Doerrenberg, Andreas Peichl and Holger Stichnoth How can retirement savings be increased? We explore a unique policy change in the context of the German pension system to study this question. As of 2004, the German pension authority started to send out annual letters providing detailed and comprehensible information about the pension system and individual expected pension payments. This reform did not change the level of pensions, but only manipulated the knowledge about and salience of expected...

Matching Contributions for Pensions

By Richard Hinz, Robert Holzmann, David Tuesta, Noriyuki Takayama Establishing robust, equitable, and effective social protection is essential to reducing poverty and boosting prosperity at all levels of development. The demographic transition that has already transformed most high-income societies will exert similar and growing pressures on others, reinforcing the role of pensions and savings for old age as a central pillar of social protection systems. Despite this increasing imperative, achieving full coverage and adequate benefits within a financially sustainable pension system...

Retirement and its funding

By Norton Reamer and Jesse Downing In the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, investment was on people’s minds. From the fraud perpetrated by Bernie Madoff, to the mortgage crisis of 2007 and 2008 and the inadequate yields on “safe” bonds, it seemed as if no part of the economy had been more unsuccessfully managed or regulated than the part related to investing for our families’ futures. And yet, in the ensuing years, the stock market was making...

Efectos de la educación en el nivel de las contribuciones a los planes privados de pensiones de las familias en España

By José Sánchez Campillo, Dolores Moreno, José Rodríguez En este trabajo se abordan los efectos de la educación en el comportamiento financiero de las familias españolas, con relación a la contratación de los planes privados de pensiones. Se realizan varias estimaciones de la probabilidad de tener planes de pensiones y de realizar aportaciones a los mismos, utilizando el modelo logit y los microdatos de la Encuesta Financiera de las Familias del Banco de España del 2005. Los resultados muestran que...

Saving and taxation in a voluntary pension system : toward an agent-based model

By Balázs Király Mandatory pension systems only partially replace old-age income, therefore the government also operates a voluntary pension system, where savings are matched by government grants. Accounting for the resulting tax expenditure, our models describe the income flow from shortsighted to farsighted workers. 1. In rational models, explicit results are obtained, showing the limited learning of shortsighted workers. 2. In agent-based models, this learning is improved and this raises the shortsighted workers' saving and reduces perverse income redistribution. (more…)

The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies

By Benedict J. Celements, Mauricio Soto et. al. Pension reform is high on the policy agenda of many advanced and emerging market economies. In advanced economies the challenge is generally to contain future increases in public pension spending as the population ages. In emerging market economies, the challenges are often different. Where pension coverage is extensive, the issues are similar to those in advanced economies. Where pension coverage is low, the key challenge will be to expand coverage in a...