Argentina. Negative PASO result for Macri would unleash market turmoil, warn analysts
ith the PASO primaries looming and polling gone dark, the question on the lips of most local and international observers is by what margin Frente de Todos presidential candidate Alberto Fernández will lead President Mauricio Macri by come Sunday night – and what will be the economic response come Monday morning.
The prevailing wisdom is that a five percent or greater victory by Fernández over President Mauricio Macri would spook investors and international economic interests, exacerbating fears of a possible return to power for Kirchnerismo. If that were to come to fruition in October, it would likely signal a departure from Macri’s pro-free market policies.
“For whatever reason five percent seems to be the magic number. If the lead is less than five percent, the market will take comfort,” Edwin Gutierrez, a portfolio manager for Aberdeen Asset Management in London, told the Times.
“If it’s greater than the five-percent gap then [Macri’s] got his work cut out for him, even assuming those third-party candidate supporters do defect,” he added.
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