The United Nations Population Division announced in November 2022 that the global population had surpassed 8 billion. This marks a doubling from 4 billion in 1974, a span of just 48 years. The world’s population exceeded 2 billion in 1927 and 1 billion in 1805. Over just 200 years, the global population has increased eightfold. However, the UN forecasts that due to a general slowdown in growth rates, the world population will reach 9 billion by 2037.

Population growth has surged exponentially since the 20th century, but the 21st century shows divergent trends between wealthy and poorer nations. Today, the world is home to more people than ever, and societies are aging at unprecedented rates. While affluent countries like South Korea and Japan worry about declining birth rates, regions like Africa grapple with growing populations.

Jennifer D. Sciubba, a globally renowned demographer and author of “8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World,” recently shared her insights in a written interview with ChosunBiz. Sciubba, who is also a professor at Rose College and the head of the U.S. Population Reference Bureau (PRB), said, “Most countries have fertility rates below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman), but a few are experiencing explosive population growth.” She added, “A new international order will emerge, and we must adapt to aging and population decline across all areas.”

Sciubba warned that excessive government intervention to boost birth rates could lead to unintended consequences. “Governments must acknowledge that they cannot fully control low birth rates and aging populations,” she said. “Excessive intervention might provoke backlash, including intensified feminist movements.” She also noted, “Women are smart and can see through policies that treat them merely as reproductive tools,” adding, “Without accompanying cultural changes, such as increased responsibilities for household labor and child-rearing by men, cash incentives for childbirth may be perceived as ‘bribes.’” Sciubba emphasized that policies should focus on “maximizing well-being.”

Despite significant government spending, South Korea has not seen much success in addressing low birth rates.

“The government plays a crucial role in setting norms related to gender roles, childbirth, and work. However, policies often vary between departments, which can make them ineffective in increasing birth rates. One department might focus on increasing female labor force participation, while another provides economic incentives for childbirth. Additionally, women often have little influence in policy-making, leading to gender issues being overlooked. This can create conflicts over issues such as parental leave and childcare support. Effective policy-making requires the involvement of civil society, private sector stakeholders, and both men and women across various departments.”

You mentioned that gender inequality is a major factor contributing to South Korea’s low birth rates. Why is that?

“Unlike countries like Finland with flexible systems, South Korea’s fertility rate is remarkably low, with fewer than one child per woman on average. South Korea has the highest gender wage gap among OECD countries. Asian scholars argue that the emphasis on patriarchal values rooted in Confucianism is a key factor in low birth rates. The South Korean government has reinforced these values through policies such as ‘foreign brides,’ which Korean feminists criticize as commodifying women. Just one generation ago, there was a significant gender imbalance at birth in South Korea. However, this cultural issue has since been corrected. This shows that culture can change and policies can guide this change.”

Besides gender inequality, what other factors contribute to South Korea’s low birth rates, and what should the focus be for effective policy solutions?

“South Korea is one of the most highly educated countries in the world, and its emphasis on education is a significant asset. However, there is intense pressure related to education, and education costs are high. South Korean workers are known to work long hours and experience a lot of stress. These factors discourage people from having children or building larger families. The government can work to alleviate some of these pressures, which may help increase birth rates. Ultimately, improving overall well-being is necessary to naturally boost birth rates.”

A 2009 survey by the East-West Center revealed that Japanese women of childbearing age spend 27 hours a week on household chores, while their husbands contribute just 3 hours. This is despite the fact that most of these married women, like their husbands, also work and earn an income. In her book, Sciubba noted that many young people in South Korea are finding it increasingly difficult to consider marriage, let alone starting a family. The high costs of private education, in particular, are making people think twice about having children.

Has any country successfully addressed the challenge of low birth rates?

“No country has consistently seen an increase in birth rates. I believe that nations worldwide should begin to accept low birth rates as the ‘new normal’ and adapt to this reality. However, most countries continue to concentrate solely on boosting birth rates instead of embracing this shift.”

Why do most countries struggle to accept low birth rates as the new normal?

“All economic theories, models, and systems were built on the assumption of perpetual population growth, particularly with a continuous influx of young workers to support the aging population. Recognizing that these population trends have permanently shifted would make it politically challenging to overhaul these economic frameworks. As a result, attempting to reverse population trends often seems like the easier route. Moreover, when politicians try to reverse these trends, it can create the impression that they are ‘taking action,’ even if those efforts prove ineffective.”

In your book, you appear to suggest that low birth rates aren’t a cause for concern. In fact, you propose that the resulting aging population could bring advantages to a country and its society.

“It’s not that low birth rates aren’t a concern, but when we view them solely as a problem, the only solution we tend to consider is increasing the birth rate. This is a misguided approach. Globally, low birth rates are more of a cultural issue, affecting some countries more than others. There are still nations with high birth rates. A better approach is to prioritize people’s well-being and adapt to the changing age structure.”

Could you elaborate on your idea that we should stop worrying about birth rates and instead prioritize how people can lead happier lives?

“Some countries prioritize boosting population numbers over improving the quality of life for their citizens, but this approach is misguided. When we focus on well-being, birth rates may naturally rise. People are less likely to start families and have children when they’re pessimistic about the future, burdened by high housing and education costs, or struggling to find suitable jobs. By prioritizing well-being and creating a more supportive environment for raising children, people will feel more hopeful and be more inclined to start families.”

If low birth rates can’t be prevented, South Korea will inevitably face an aging society. Can the Korean economy still grow under these circumstances?

“No one can predict exactly how the Korean economy will evolve in an aging society. While certain industries, like healthcare, may thrive, others will face significant challenges. The same uncertainty applies to individuals. What we need to focus on is identifying who the winners and losers will be as the population structure shifts.”

While developed countries worry about low birth rates, the global population is projected to keep rising, especially in Africa. On a global scale, will uncontrolled population growth become a bigger problem than population decline?

“While it’s true that sub-Saharan Africa has the highest birth rates and the fastest population growth, there are significant differences within the region. For instance, the total fertility rate in Southern Africa is 2.4 children per woman. The global population could still grow by another 2 billion people. In the future, attention should be given to the population gap between regions with young, rapidly growing populations and those that are aging or declining. These regions will face very different challenges and opportunities.”

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